Cathie Wood, the head of Ark Invest, recently made a bold prediction: the U.S. Department of the Treasury may establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve by the end of 2025, with a scale of $5 billion. As soon as this statement was made, the market exploded.

From an investment perspective, this is indeed worth paying attention to. The Ark team itself is a staunch supporter of Bitcoin, having already heavily positioned in BTC last year. If the U.S. government actually enters the market, institutional investors may follow suit, greatly boosting market sentiment, and short-term prices are likely to be affected.

However, the reality is in front of us, and there are many difficulties. First, there is legal resistance — the U.S. Department of the Treasury currently mainly holds gold and dollar reserves. Changing to crypto assets would require a full legislative process, which is inherently a long-term process. Second, Bitcoin’s volatility is well known; last year’s maximum drawdown reached 50%. Whether government funds can withstand such drastic fluctuations is uncertain. Additionally, new public chains like Ethereum and Solana are gradually emerging. While Bitcoin’s position as a first-tier asset remains solid, it does face new competitive dynamics in the long run.

In short, Cathie Wood’s prediction is a barometer of market sentiment and may also be an excuse for hype. But according to Ark’s own data, the probability of this actually happening is about 30%. Therefore, investors should remain rational, avoid being led by hype, and pay more attention to fundamental changes — that’s the solid foundation for making decisions.