The Bitcoin market is currently facing a latent but certain selling pressure factor—the phased disposal of assets confiscated by the government.

First, let's look at the seized assets. Large reserves of confiscated Bitcoin (approximately 127,000 coins, valued at around 15 billion) will inevitably face phased selling in the short to medium term. Based on historical experience, governments handling illicit assets usually adopt strategies such as batch auctions or gradual reductions to both monetize the assets and avoid market shocks. This means there could be sustained selling pressure in the coming months.

More concerning is the geopolitical aspect. Some major oil reserve countries (the world's largest oil reserve nations) have already bypassed the US dollar settlement system and shifted to RMB, euro, and U-coin settlements, which exposes their digital assets like Bitcoin to higher risk. Based on reserve scale estimates, their BTC holdings could reach 3-4 times that amount. In contrast, another potential reserve holder relies long-term on self-mined oil for electricity and mining activities, with relatively limited exposure—estimated at about 2 times.

Looking at the market reaction to the geopolitical events in early January, there was an initial short-term sell-off followed by a noticeable rally. This pattern is worth noting—event shocks disrupt liquidity, but the market quickly recovers. If similar conflicts escalate in the future, this pattern may repeat: sell first, buy later.

In terms of trading strategy, caution should be exercised regarding short-term rebounds (a quick long position could be profitable), but holding short positions in the medium term is safer. Once the US economic environment improves, such pressures are expected to gradually ease.