#预测市场 The prediction market has already shifted from product innovation to regulatory engineering, as evidenced by the explosive growth expected in 2025. The key signals are clear: Kalshi's valuation doubled to $11 billion, Polymarket's monthly trading volume reached $2.6 billion, and Robinhood's event trading annual revenue hit $300 million — the real story behind these numbers is not technological breakthroughs, but the integration of distribution capabilities and compliance frameworks.

On-chain data reveals an interesting divergence: sports event-driven high-frequency small trades (traffic engine), and political/macro markets with concentrated large open positions (capital magnet). This indicates fundamentally different participant behaviors — one type is entertainment-driven traffic, the other seeks informational advantage. Operational pressures on platforms are also layered accordingly.

The true stress test will occur during the 2026 World Cup. With 48 teams, 104 matches, and 16 cities, the liquidity concentration and settlement load generated over five weeks will directly test each platform’s: liquidity aggregation, settlement integrity, cross-state judicial design, and KYC/AML scalability at peak times. The 2022 World Cup saw hundreds of billions of dollars in global betting; North American compliance tracks will handle an even larger share — this is no longer a debate of on-chain vs. off-chain, but who can operate stably within permitted frameworks.

The secondary effects of stablecoins are worth noting. USDC and Visa’s on-chain settlement pilot, Circle’s deepening payment infrastructure — all are reducing friction. However, the ECB’s warnings about private stablecoins are also intensifying. 2026 is more likely to see gradual integration: more compliant gambling platforms accepting stablecoin deposits, but with strengthened licensing and auditing, rather than full endorsement of native crypto tracks.

One last observation — distribution has become the consensus for dominance. Robinhood+Kalshi, DraftKings+CME, FanDuel+Underdog — these collaborations reveal the true moat: not who has the latest technology, but who has existing users, low customer acquisition costs, and ready KYC channels. Super app-style aggregation is approaching, and platforms that can simultaneously persuade users and regulators will be the winners of the next round of consolidation. Scale is no longer the question; the real question is who will live to see that day.