#以太坊大户持仓变化 Will gold break 4500 or retreat? Non-farm payroll data is the key!

Yesterday morning, gold prices continued to dip after the market opened, reaching a high of 4484 this morning. I precisely caught this rebound opportunity, decisively entered short positions around 4484, and easily secured 30 points profit.

The logic behind the market is clear—Federal Reserve officials signaled easing on Thursday, hinting at a possible 150 basis point rate cut plan by 2026. The market responded swiftly, with international gold rising over $20, a gain of 0.48%. But the real "plot twist" depends on the upcoming non-farm payroll data released today. This data will directly influence the short-term direction of gold prices.

Another variable is the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on tariff policies, which may come as soon as Friday. A ruling in favor of legality is bullish for gold, while a negative ruling could cause a sell-off. These uncertainties have left the market in a stalemate between bulls and bears.

From a technical perspective, spot gold surged this morning but then started to retrace slightly, entering a digestion phase after a deep V-shaped reversal. Support levels below are solid, with daily charts showing long lower shadows, indicating buying efforts are still ongoing. Prices have stabilized above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. The key resistance is in the 4490-4500 USD range; whether it breaks through is crucial. Short-term support below is at 4440-4445, with a stronger support zone at 4415-4423.

Currently, the market is mainly waiting for the non-farm payroll data to decide whether to move up or down. The overall fluctuation range is between 4415 and 4490. The trading strategy is straightforward—reduce positions at high levels, add at low levels, and avoid chasing rallies or panic selling. Near 4440-4445, consider going long; signals to add positions are at 4415-4423, with a stop-loss around 4403. The target ranges from 4468-4478; if broken upward, watch for 4500-4510.