ETF has experienced a net outflow of $930 million for three consecutive days. Can the cooling of institutional risk appetite reverse the BTC rebound?

The flow of funds into US Bitcoin ETFs has shown a clear reversal. According to the latest data, the US spot Bitcoin ETF has experienced net outflows for three consecutive trading days, totaling $934.8 million, breaking the momentum of large-scale institutional inflows seen earlier in the year. This shift reflects a cooling of market risk appetite, with Bitcoin facing multiple short-term pressures, though medium-term demand has not yet fully reversed.

ETF Flow “Hot and Cold” Switch

Specific data on fund outflows

According to Farside monitoring data, the fund flows of US spot Bitcoin ETFs have shown a significant divergence:

This is a stark contrast to the scene at the beginning of the year. Just a week ago, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) saw a single-day inflow of $372.5 million, with institutional investors actively deploying capital. Today’s outflows are clearly not just “rebalancing,” but part of a broader “de-risking” operation.

The real reasons behind the outflows

Fund withdrawals are not without cause. Based on on-chain research and market analysis, the main pressures come from three aspects:

• Technical resistance: Bitcoin has repeatedly faced resistance at the $92,000 level, falling back from a high of $94,000 to around $91,100, with momentum clearly waning
• On-chain liquidation pressure: Glassnode data shows that major buyers’ cost basis is concentrated between $92,100 and $117,400, and after “breaking even,” these investors face ongoing profit/loss balancing sell pressure
• Macro uncertainties: The optimistic sentiment at the start of the year is gradually retreating, and early-year capital reallocation has led to a natural correction in risk appetite

Derive Research Director Sean Dawson pointed out that ETF fund outflows are more like “strategic position adjustments” rather than demand disappearing suddenly, but the scale and speed of these adjustments do indicate institutions are reassessing their risk exposure.

Short-term pressures vs. medium-term resilience

Three-day outflow vs. seven-day inflow

Seemingly contradictory data actually reflect the market’s true state. Although there has been a total outflow of $934.8 million over the past three days, on a seven-day basis, the ETF still maintains an overall net inflow of about $240.7 million. This implies:

• There is indeed a significant de-risking operation in the short term
• But the longer-term demand foundation has not been fully reversed
• This is a “correction” rather than a “reversal” — a key signal

Cautious signals from the options market

Short-term call options skew has turned negative again, indicating traders’ expectations for a continuation of the “January early trend” have cooled significantly. The market is more inclined to believe Bitcoin will oscillate within a high range rather than continue upward. This aligns with the ETF fund flow signals.

Key upcoming observation points

For Bitcoin to restart its upward trend, several conditions need to be met:

• Digest on-chain supply pressure: Major buyers’ need to unwind positions requires time to be released
• Hold key support levels: Technical support around $92,000 is crucial
• Await macro confirmation: Clearer signals of risk appetite improvement are needed
• ETF fund stability: Continued outflows will increase short-term pressure

Summary

The three-day consecutive fund outflows in ETFs reflect a substantive shift in market sentiment, but this is more of a short-term “adjustment” rather than a long-term “reversal.” From the seven-day net inflow perspective, medium-term institutional demand remains, with the key question being whether Bitcoin can absorb current pressures within the high range. In the near term, support around $91,000 and resistance at $92,000 will be focal points, and breaking through or losing these levels will determine the next phase. Currently, the market needs time to rebuild consensus rather than rushing to chase highs.