#比特币市场表现 The signal of miners surrendering has caught my attention for a long time. VanEck's data is quite interesting—over the past month, hash rate has decreased by 4%, and historically, the probability of 90-day positive returns during such periods reaches 65%, with an average 180-day increase of 72%. This is not some mysterious pattern; essentially, it is a market clearing process.

Weak miners cut losses and exit, and a decline in hash rate indicates that mining rewards have already touched some participants' psychological bottom line. And this is precisely one of the most reliable signals of a bottom—because it reflects real economic decisions rather than emotional fluctuations.

The current question is how to follow. If among the traders you watch, some aggressive players have recently increased their long positions or are waiting for a breakdown confirmation, it’s worth closely observing their risk management strategies. Aggressiveness is not scary; what’s scary is being aggressive without a clear stop-loss logic. Conversely, those who are gradually deploying in the bottom area, only using 10-15% of their total funds each time, are now possibly testing their strategies.

My advice is to look at it in two tiers: conservative accounts can follow verified bottom-fishing traders; aggressive accounts can focus on trend-following experts’ actions at this point. Miner surrendering may indeed signal a turning point, but a turning point does not guarantee profits. The details of execution are where the victory or defeat is decided.