January 9th SOL

The 4-hour cycle shows a clear signal of oscillating and turning bearish: the price has been pressured and pulled back from the upper Bollinger Band, briefly rebounding above the middle band but failing to stabilize and weakening again. Currently, the upper Bollinger Band continues to turn downward, and the channel is narrowing with a bearish bias, indicating that after volatility contraction, the trend is likely to continue downward. Although the lower band is at a relatively low level, due to the inertia of the bearish trend, short-term support is insufficient, making it difficult to form a strong foundation.

Technical indicators are resonating bearish, with bullish momentum continuously shrinking. The DIF and DEA lines are gradually converging, showing a clear "shrinking red bars + potential death cross" pattern, confirming that bullish momentum is rapidly diminishing and bearish strength is accumulating. Once a valid death cross forms, it will confirm a trend shift from weak to bearish, and downward momentum is expected to further release.

Volume analysis: During the rebound, trading volume did not increase synchronously; instead, it showed a decreasing trend, indicating low market buying interest and a lack of capital support for the rebound, making it difficult to reverse the current weak pattern.

Entry zone: During the rebound, consider gradually opening short positions in the 142-147 key resistance zone. This area is not only the resonance pressure level of the middle Bollinger Band and previous high-volume trading zones but also the optimal entry region with the best risk-reward ratio for bears.

Target zone: The first target is the short-term support zone at 133-130. If this level is effectively broken, the next support is at 125-123.

The current market is at a critical point of trend reversal. In the context of Bollinger Band contraction, beware of false breakouts. The main trading logic remains "short on rebounds," and avoid blindly bottom-fishing. Pay close attention to the confirmation of the MACD death cross signal and the price testing of the 133 key support level. Adjust your position strategy dynamically based on the actual trend.