The three major changes in the 2026 forecast market: a16z research advisor reveals new opportunities at the intersection of AI and crypto

a16z crypto research advisor Andy Hall recently expressed the view that 2026 will see a significant turning point for prediction markets. As prediction markets deeply intersect with cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence, the entire sector will become larger, cover more areas, and operate more intelligently. This presents opportunities for builders but also introduces new challenges, especially in social issues and dispute resolution.

Three Major Trends in Prediction Markets

Scale Expansion: More Contracts Listed

Andy Hall pointed out that this year, prediction markets will see more contracts listed. This means that not only traditional prediction categories such as politics and sports will expand, but also emerging fields with active prediction demand. During this expansion, the application scenarios of prediction markets will evolve from niche tools to broader social infrastructure.

Coverage Expansion

The coverage of prediction markets will become broader. This is reflected not only in the increase in the number of contracts but also in the participation, application scenarios, and geographical scope. The global nature of cryptocurrencies and the widespread application of AI provide the technical foundation for breaking regional and industry barriers in prediction markets.

Technological Upgrades: Becoming Smarter

The most critical change is that prediction markets will become more intelligent. This is mainly achieved through:

• Combining LLM oracles with decentralized governance to better determine facts when results are disputed
• Applying AI beyond LLMs, opening up more possibilities for oracles, including complex data analysis and cross-chain information verification
• These technological innovations enable prediction markets to handle more complex and controversial prediction events

New Challenges and Solutions

Emergence of Social Issues

Andy Hall emphasized that more contracts listed will trigger significant social issues. These include risks of market manipulation, verification of information authenticity, and handling extreme events. As prediction markets become more influential decision-making tools, their potential negative effects also become more apparent.

Mechanisms for Handling Extreme Cases

To address these challenges, new decentralized governance frameworks and LLM-based oracles are key solutions. These mechanisms can:

• Verify facts through multi-layered validation when results are disputed
• Use AI’s analytical capabilities to identify abnormal trading and market manipulation
• Engage the community in dispute resolution through decentralized governance, enhancing transparency and fairness

The Relationship Between Prediction Markets and Public Opinion Polls

An often-overlooked point is that Andy Hall believes prediction markets will not replace public opinion polls but will instead improve them. This reflects the true positioning of prediction markets—they are a complementary tool, not a substitute.

Public opinion polls and prediction markets can complement each other:

• Poll data can serve as input information for prediction markets
• The results of prediction markets can reflect the genuine views of market participants on polls
• Combining both can provide more comprehensive decision-making insights

Summary

By 2026, prediction markets are at a critical stage of transitioning from niche tools to mainstream infrastructure. The three major trends—scale expansion, coverage expansion, and technological upgrades—highlight the sector’s maturing process. However, this development also brings new social issues and governance challenges. The key question is whether new decentralized governance models and AI technologies can keep pace with market expansion, ensuring innovation while maintaining system fairness and credibility. This is why top institutions like a16z crypto continue to invest in infrastructure—only with robust underlying technology and governance mechanisms can prediction markets truly realize their value as tools for societal decision-making.