XAU Gold: Midday outlook—whether these three price levels can hold will directly determine the gold price trend before and after the non-farm payrolls

【Market Review】
Yesterday morning, spot gold dipped accordingly, and this morning it surged to around 4484 then pulled back. After a deep V-shaped reversal, it entered a consolidation phase—bullish momentum is somewhat waning, but buying interest below remains steady, typical of a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. At key price levels, major funds are generally holding back for a big move.

【Macro Outlook】
Currently, the entire market is waiting for the non-farm payroll data. Once released, the Fed’s policy expectations will need to be readjusted, which will directly influence the direction of gold. But before the data, funds remain cautious. The US dollar index is fluctuating, and geopolitical risks are changing, making it difficult for gold to break out of a clear trend in the short term. It’s mostly trading within a range.

【Technical Analysis】
The daily chart shows a deep lower shadow, indicating strong support from buyers below, and the price has stabilized above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. On the 4-hour chart, gold remains within the upward trendline support framework, and the bullish trend has not been broken. Short-term resistance is at the previous high of 4490-4500. Support levels are at 4440-4445 first, then 4415-4423. Overall trading range: 4415 to 4490.

【Trading Strategy】
Avoid chasing highs or cutting losses prematurely; focus on buying low and selling high within the range:

Long positions: Buy back around 4440-4445, add more at 4415-4423, with a stop-loss near 4403.

Targets: First aim for 4470-4475, and if broken, look toward 4500-4510.

Key point: Keep position sizes strict; once the non-farm data is released, quickly adjust based on the breakout direction.

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