Ethereum faces a $1.382 billion liquidation trap: breaking through $3,274 short positions triggers a liquidation, dropping below $2,963 long positions exit.

ETH current quote is $3,114.98, but it is in a dangerous “liquidation corridor.” According to the latest on-chain data, if ETH breaks through $3,274, the cumulative short liquidation strength on major CEXs will reach $1.382 billion; conversely, if it falls below $2,963, the long liquidation strength will reach $1.115 billion. This means that whether breaking upward or downward, it will trigger chain reactions involving billions of dollars in liquidations.

The Double-Edged Sword of Liquidation Risks

Current Market Structure Analysis

According to Coinglass data, ETH faces a clearly asymmetric liquidation risk. The upward liquidation pressure is greater:

• Short positions will be liquidated to the tune of $1.382 billion if breaking through $3,274
• Long positions will be liquidated to the tune of $1.115 billion if falling below $2,963
• The two liquidation prices are separated by $311, with the current price of $3,114.98 positioned in the upper middle of this range

This asymmetric structure indicates that short positions are relatively concentrated in the current market. Once an upward breakout occurs, forced short covering will generate momentum for accelerated price increases. Although the liquidation pressure on longs is slightly smaller, it still cannot be ignored.

Price Range and Technical Dialogue

Based on the latest technical analysis, the key levels for ETH are as follows:

It is noteworthy that ETH’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached 64, indicating an overbought condition, which often signals potential short-term volatility or a correction. The overbought signals from technical analysis combined with liquidation data create a delicate balance.

Capital and Fundamental Support

Despite cautious signals from technicals, capital inflows continue:

• BlackRock purchased $102.9 million worth of ETH on January 5
• Grayscale’s ETHE has become the first spot ETH ETF to distribute staking rewards to shareholders
• On-chain data shows whales have accumulated over 3.62 million ETH in the past month
• Exchange reserves have fallen to the lowest in nine years, reflecting bullish market sentiment

These institutional-level capital inflows and on-chain accumulation behaviors provide potential momentum for ETH to break above $3,274 and trigger liquidations. Meanwhile, the BPO hard fork increased the blob limit, enhancing Ethereum’s scalability, which from a fundamental perspective supports investor confidence.

Market Participants’ Battle

From trader activity, market sentiment toward ETH is polarized. Notable trader 0x10a3 has added ETH long positions, holding 5,000 ETH with unrealized profits exceeding $3.5 million. Trader James Wynn is leveraging 25x long ETH positions and has gained $87,000. The presence of these large leveraged longs indicates bullish sentiment but also means that if prices break below support levels, these high-leverage positions could become a “liquidation arsenal.”

Key Follow-up Observations

The critical factor for ETH’s next move is whether it can break through the 100-day moving average resistance at $3,307. If successful and the price continues upward, the $3,274 short liquidation price will be reached, potentially accelerating the $1.382 billion in liquidations. Conversely, if it repeatedly faces resistance and falls below the 50-day moving average at $3,132, further downside toward the $2,963 long liquidation level should be watched carefully.

Summary

ETH is currently at a high-risk, high-opportunity node. The $1.382 billion short liquidation scale and $1.115 billion long liquidation scale form a “double minefield.” While institutional capital inflows and improving fundamentals support an upward move, overbought signals and concentrated high-leverage longs also embed downside risks. In the short term, the key is whether ETH can break through the $3,307 resistance, which will determine whether the market triggers short liquidations or continues to oscillate within the current range. Regardless, market participants should closely monitor these two liquidation levels, as touching either could trigger chain reactions.