On-chain Spend Output Age Distribution (SOAB) reveals a very straightforward signal: recently flowing into exchanges are not new short-term funds entering the market, but rather old coins that have experienced multiple bull and bear cycles and have remained inactive. More importantly, the sequence is very clear — old coins become active first, and only then does the market start to retrace. This largely rules out the judgment of "retail investor panic," and instead suggests that the supply side is actively releasing chips.

When old coins move at high levels, what does it usually mean? It’s not panic, but that the accounts are well understood. Risks are accumulating, profits are being taken off the table first, and what happens next depends on future developments. Historical trends also confirm this pattern; such phenomena often appear in the later stages of a market cycle or near a certain stage of a top.

In the current market, this is exactly the case: the days of mindlessly accumulating coins are over. Veteran players are starting to reallocate their chips and actively adjust their positions. In the short term, this may increase volatility, and the upward slope may be tempered, but this is more about "digesting existing supply" rather than signaling a market collapse. This is not an emotional retreat, but a sign that those holding chips are beginning to change their rhythm. Bitcoin is shifting from the "storytelling for profit" stage to the "on-chain real distribution takes control" stage.

Regarding miners, the flow to exchanges remains high, indicating they are continuously realizing profits, and selling pressure has not diminished. But the key is not whether miners are selling or not, but whether the market can withstand it. Data shows that the 50-day and 100-day moving averages of miner flow remain firmly at high levels, with no collapse or clear reversal downward. This means that although there is selling pressure, it has not yet reached an uncontrollable level.