The US unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data for December are about to be released. These two sets of data are crucial for the Federal Reserve's policy judgment and will also directly influence the short-term trend of gold. Currently, the gold market is in a consolidation phase, and the direction before and after the data release depends on how these two indicators perform.

Let's first look at market expectations. The previous unemployment rate was 4.60%, and the market forecast this time is a slight decline to 4.50%. If the actual data is lower, indicating that the labor market remains tight, the Fed will likely maintain its high-interest-rate stance more firmly, which is not very favorable for gold; conversely, if the unemployment rate exceeds expectations, it means employment pressure is easing, and the rate cut window may open earlier, benefiting gold.

Regarding non-farm employment, the previous figure was 64,000 jobs, with expectations lowered to 60,000. This downward revision reflects the market's view that employment growth is slowing. If the actual data is significantly below 60,000, it confirms that the labor market is cooling; if it exceeds expectations, it indicates that employment resilience is stronger than expected.

From a technical perspective, gold is currently oscillating between 4450 and 4470, and the market is mostly on the sidelines before the data release. Once the data is out, this balance will be broken, and the trend may become clearer.

How to operate specifically? Before the data is released, it is recommended to hold a light position or stay completely flat—avoid blind positioning. Non-farm data can be very volatile and easily cause direct losses, so risk management is important. The key is to watch whether the support and resistance at 4450 and 4470 are truly effective.

Responses based on the data release:

If a bullish gold scenario occurs—that is, non-farm employment below 60,000 and unemployment rate above 4.60%—then you can go long lightly at the 4450 support level, targeting the 4470-4480 range, and look higher if it breaks through.

If a bearish gold scenario occurs—that is, non-farm employment above 64,000 and unemployment rate below 4.50%—then try short positions lightly near the 4470 resistance level, aiming for a drop to 4450. If it breaks below, watch the 4430-4420 support levels.

A more neutral scenario should also be considered, where the data meets expectations. In this case, continue to buy low and sell high within the 4450-4470 range, with a stop loss placed 5 points outside the range to prevent losses from expanding.

Overall, this data is the most important indicator in the current consolidation phase. It’s not worth pre-positioning; waiting for the data to be released and reacting quickly based on the results is a more prudent approach.