In the past, when looking at economic data, I could usually guess pretty accurately, but this time I am truly baffled. Previously, I expected the non-farm payrolls data released today to be mostly bearish, but the more I delve into the details, the more confused I become.

According to usual logic, a decrease in the unemployment rate should indicate an improvement in employment. The question is, how many new jobs can actually be added? Will the data exceed expectations? How much will it differ from previous levels? There are no definitive answers to these questions.

Another critical detail is—could the decline in the unemployment rate simply be because more people have given up looking for work and exited the labor force, rather than because new job opportunities are actually emerging? If that’s the case, the overall quality of the employment data would be significantly compromised, and it all depends on changes in the labor force participation rate.

The first non-farm payrolls report of the year is usually quite important, but this time it’s somewhat awkward—about an hour after the data is released, the U.S. Supreme Court will rule on tariff issues. As a result, market attention will inevitably be divided, and the unilateral impact of the non-farm data may be weakened.

The impact of tariff policies is long-term, and changes in the employment market are also long-term. If these two factors have conflicting effects on the expectation of rate cuts, which benchmark should traders rely on? This itself is a difficult problem.

If the court’s ruling allows tariff policies to take effect, it can be seen as a victory for a particular stance. Considering the style of this political figure—closely tied to interests and often creating topics around policy legitimacy and administrative authority—they are likely to make high-profile statements and intensive remarks. But what exactly they will say is unpredictable, as this person never plays by the usual rules.

Tonight’s data is likely to become a key point for the upcoming crypto market trend. Will it continue to rise and cheer, or plunge rapidly and be filled with despair? We’ll find out tonight.

Mainstream cryptocurrencies like ETH and SOL will be the first to reflect market sentiment, so pay close attention to the candlestick performance of these key indicator coins.