#美国贸易赤字状况 $ETH shows signals on the technical chart, but tonight's real key is the non-farm payroll data!

What seems like a calm consolidation phase is actually a buildup before a major move—Ethereum's 30-minute chart is just holding at support, and a US employment report is about to set the tone.

**What is the current technical situation?**

First, look at the MACD indicator. The fast and slow lines are still below the zero line in the bearish zone, but the histogram has turned red and started to expand, which is a typical signal before a golden cross after a bullish divergence. Volume-wise, there's some interesting movement—currently at 24,970.069, noticeably shrinking, less than the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, indicating the market is waiting for something. The price is sandwiched between short-term moving averages, showing a typical oscillation and consolidation pattern.

**What do on-chain data reveal?**

Whale addresses are continuously accumulating in the 3150-3200 range, which is a significant signal. Meanwhile, inflows to exchanges are slowing down, suggesting selling pressure is easing. Taken together, there is short-term support at this level.

**But all of this could be overturned tonight**

The decisive factor is at 21:30 Beijing time—the US December non-farm payrolls report. The previous value was 64,000 jobs, with a market expectation of 60,000; the unemployment rate was 4.60%, expected to decline to 4.50%. This data directly influences the Federal Reserve's policy stance.

If employment exceeds expectations, it signals a stronger rate hike outlook, the dollar could appreciate, and risk assets like Ethereum might be hammered down. Conversely, if the data is weak and easing rate hike pressures emerge, Ethereum could have a chance to surge toward the 3350–3400 resistance zone.

**What is the strategic outlook?**

Before the data release, expect sideways movement; a true trend will only emerge after the market digest the news. Currently, Ethereum is already building energy around 3300, with signs of technical strength emerging, and on-chain support is in place. The downside space is indeed limited.

The key is that without macroeconomic catalysts, relying solely on on-chain funds makes a large rebound unlikely. The most pragmatic approach is to wait for the non-farm data; if the news is positive, follow the trend with light positions; if the data is weak and prices drop sharply, it could be an opportunity for mid-term traders to place orders at support levels.

The technical bottom is quietly forming, but tonight's outcome entirely depends on macro data. Ethereum's engine is already revving—whether tonight’s 21:30 move is acceleration or braking remains to be seen.

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