The US initial jobless claims report was bearish, but gold found support at 4440 and rebounded to 4480. The long positions set at 4410 have already been reduced and taken profit, while short positions were established at 4481.

Behind the seemingly contradictory movements are two core supports: on one hand, Bloomberg's commodity index adjusted its position structure, and the significant decrease in gold's weighting indeed caused selling pressure. However, continuous accumulation by central banks in various countries has played a stabilizing role, creating a divergence where "gold resists decline while other precious metals lead the decline." On the other hand, the ongoing escalation of Middle East tensions and the increasing unilateral nature of US energy policies have heightened geopolitical risks, driving global safe-haven capital flows and gold demand from non-US countries.

The key turning point is tonight's non-farm payroll data. If the data shows weakness, gold is expected to break through the 4480-4500 range and move higher; conversely, if the data exceeds expectations, gold prices may retrace to the 4410-4400 level, and further decline could reach 4370-4320.

A quick reminder: Be especially cautious of institutional shakeouts before and after the non-farm data release. Instead of blindly following the trend, it's better to observe and wait until the trend becomes clearer before taking action.