From the 4-hour chart on January 9th, SOL's recent performance has indeed been weakening. The price has been suppressed below the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Although there was a rebound, it has not been able to stabilize above the middle band, indicating a lack of momentum.



More importantly, the upper band of the Bollinger Bands is beginning to turn downward, and the entire channel is showing signs of narrowing, which suggests that volatility is converging and the downward trend is likely to continue. Although the lower band appears quite low, the bearish inertia is still present, and the support at this level is not strong enough to form an effective base.

From an indicator perspective, the bullish momentum is continuously weakening. The MACD's DIF and DEA lines are getting closer, with a particularly clear "shrinking red histogram + potential death cross" pattern, indicating that the bulls are losing strength while the bears are accumulating energy. Once the death cross is confirmed, it will mark a true trend reversal to bearish, and the subsequent downside space could be larger.

Trading volume is also weakening. During the rebound, volume did not increase; instead, it decreased, indicating that buying interest is weak and the market lacks sufficient funds to push prices higher. The rebound is essentially a weak rally.

**Operational strategy:** When the price rebounds to the 142-147 range, consider gradually opening short positions. This range coincides with the middle band of the Bollinger Bands and overlaps with previous high-volume areas, making it the most cost-effective zone for shorting.

**Target levels:** The first target is the short-term support at 133-130. If this level is broken effectively, then continue to watch the key support zone at 125-123.

Currently, the market is at a critical point of trend reversal. During the Bollinger Bands' narrowing phase, beware of false breakouts. The trading logic is to mainly short on rebounds, and avoid rushing to catch the bottom. Focus on whether the MACD death cross is truly confirmed and whether the price can hold above 133, adjusting flexibly based on actual market movements.
SOL-0.91%
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CommunityWorkervip
· 15h ago
SOL this wave is indeed a bit bearish, the Bollinger Bands are starting to tighten, and the bulls are bleeding... To be honest, I didn't dare to chase the rebound at that time; the volume was too fake. The 142-147 zone is indeed tempting. If you do short positions in batches, you can try to see if you can catch a wave. I'm just worried that the MACD death cross might not be confirmed yet and could be a false breakout, so I need to keep my eyes open. --- Damn, tracking the MACD death cross again... Every time I say that, I end up getting slapped in the face. I'm done. --- Is this all for the volume-reduction rebound? It's purely a trap to lure in traders. Only when 133 breaks is it considered a true bear market. For now, let's just wait and see. --- Bro, your analysis is thorough. The Bollinger Bands are tightening + the MACD line is close together, so there's definitely room to go down. Just find a place to exit during the rebound, and that's it. --- I just want to know how many days the 133 level can hold. It feels like turning around will only take a couple of days. --- Don't try to catch the bottom; it hurts too much. Every time, someone gets caught holding the bag. SOL is just like this.
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