Ethereum Technical Outlook - Range Consolidation Amid Short-Term Cautious Sentiment

As of the morning of January 9, Ethereum's price hovers around $3,093, down approximately 2.5% over the past 24 hours, with trading volume still in the $23-24B range. From a technical perspective, this correction shows clear divergence: short-term indicators (1-hour, 4-hour) have turned bearish, but the daily MACD remains above the zero line, indicating that upward momentum has not been completely lost.

Recent support and resistance levels are worth monitoring. If the $3,000 psychological level can hold, the rebound could target the $3,200-$3,258 range; conversely, if it fails to hold, the price may test the daily support at $2,948. Specifically, support at the 1-hour level is at $3,085, and at the 4-hour level at $3,061, while resistance above is at $3,138 and $3,186 respectively.

From the derivatives market perspective, the most interesting development is the continuous contraction of futures leverage positions, reflecting a shift towards caution in short-term sentiment—investors are clearly deleveraging. However, open interest in options is concentrated near at-the-money strikes, suggesting traders are psychologically prepared for range-bound volatility. Long leverage is concentrated around the $3,000-$3,050 level, which has almost become the current dividing line between bulls and bears: if this level can hold, bears may cover their positions, pushing the price higher to test stronger resistance; otherwise, there is a risk of accelerated decline.

Overall funding rates remain slightly positive, indicating a roughly balanced power between bulls and bears. Coupled with the recent narrowing of Bollinger Bands, the short-term market may be brewing for a directional breakout, and the current stalemate could soon be broken.