2026-01-09 04:40:14

#密码资产动态追踪 ⚡ This Friday, two major events collide — non-farm payroll data and tariff rulings, and Wall Street is likely to experience a day of ups and downs.

The most watched is the 21:30 non-farm report. The market expects an increase of 60,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.5%, which is the so-called "just right" — it neither suppresses rate cut expectations due to overheating nor triggers recession fears due to weakness. Any deviation from this range could trigger a wave of stock and bond volatility.

Even more concerning is valuation pressure. The S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio has already surged to 22 times, a level last seen at the peak of 2022. At this height, the margin for error is almost zero, and any bad news will be amplified.

The suspense over the tariff case is equally intense. The Supreme Court may rule on the fate of Trump's tariff policies at 10:00 AM on Friday. Polymarket shows only a 24% chance of maintaining the original ruling, with a 76% chance of overturning it. If tariffs are indeed canceled, the $133 billion in revenue will become void, and the government deficit will widen again, directly impacting U.S. Treasury yields.

Conversely, large retail companies like Walmart and Costco have already been seeking compensation. If they win, the real cash benefits will flow to these companies. At that point, the dollar may weaken, the U.S. Treasury yield curve could steepen, and the Fed's rationale for rate cuts will strengthen.

Interestingly, the market appears calm on the surface, but the VIX has quietly risen to 15.5, and implied volatility of options has reached ±0.9%. Analysts are all saying the same thing: surface calm, but undercurrents are surging.

So, the direction on Friday depends on these two events — if tariffs are retained, it could trigger a rally; if tariffs are canceled, it will play out as "bad news fully priced in." Assets like $ZEC and $DASH will also fluctuate with changes in market risk appetite. The most dangerous day on Wall Street will be revealed on Friday.

ZEC-13.6%

DASH-5.68%

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defi_detective

· 01-09 05:10

Calm down, that 15.5 VIX is the real deal. The market's bluffing game has grown tired. If the tariffs really collapse this Friday, US bond yields will need to be re-priced. How will crypto respond? Non-farm payrolls are such a critical data point, leaving no room for error. Basically, it's a gamble on the 60,000-job figure. ZEC and DASH are both waiting at the tipping point right now. A shift in risk appetite and they'll turn face immediately. The S&P 500 with a 22x PE ratio has seen its death in 2022. This time, the tolerance for error is zero.

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MetaEggplant

· 01-09 05:08

Oh man, Friday's momentum is crazy, feels like we're about to get liquidated VIX quietly climbed to 15.5, and people still say the market is calm? That's BS If tariffs actually get reversed, Treasury yields will be under pressure over there, who knows how spot prices move then S&P at 22x valuation, zero margin for error... that's insane Just wait, Friday's non-farm payroll plus court ruling, crypto can't escape this wave of impact

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ApeDegen

· 01-09 05:05

Friday is going to explode. When these two things happen together, no one can hold it together. --- The non-farm payrolls of 60,000 sound quite "perfect," but under this valuation ceiling, perfect = fragile. Any small disturbance can turn into a major event. --- Did 133 billion just disappear? US bond yields are going crazy, and the deficit gap is always a troublemaker. --- VIX at 15.5 still says the market is calm? Laughable. When dark currents are flowing, you should be ready with a life vest. --- WMT, COST, after winning, the dollar depreciates and yields spike. This script is quite interesting. --- Watching the tariff ruling on Friday, but the real answer was already in the options prices. No one wants to admit it. --- The market is eerily calm, analysts are grimacing. This is when the market is most likely to turn over. --- S&P 500 at 22x PE, zero room for error. Any surprise on Friday will be amplified tenfold. --- ZEC, DASH will dance with risk appetite. The key is how Wall Street performs this play on Friday. --- Surface calm with hidden currents. I'm just waiting to see the show on Friday. Either way, both outcomes can be played with flair.

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AltcoinHunter

· 01-09 05:02

Bro, this Friday is really walking a tightrope... Non-farm + tariffs double hit, I'm already prepared to cut losses [laugh cry] VIX is secretly climbing, indicating that smart money has already sniffed out the signal. Surface calm is the most terrifying; these are often the times when black swans appear. The key is that PE ratios have already surged to 22x, leaving little room for error... I don't even dare to look at the market, afraid that I might accidentally go all-in with my already limited assets. Once the Friday data is out, if $ZEC and $DASH can ride the trend and catch a wave, that would be the look of a potential new star. But given the current situation, I think it's safer to reduce leverage first.

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ZKProofster

· 01-09 05:00

nah the vix creeping up while everyone acts zen is the real tell here... actually, trustless markets don't exist when the fed can just rewrite the rules friday morning, proof be damned

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NotSatoshi

· 01-09 04:48

This game on Friday depends on how the court rules. 24% versus 76%, tariffs are likely to be wiped out. At that time, U.S. bond yields will follow suit, and ZEC and DASH will have to dance along. The key is still the non-farm payroll data; if it deviates even slightly, everything will be thrown into chaos.

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