#密码资产动态追踪 BTC hourly chart hides some secrets? Breakout signs have already surfaced

Looking at today’s BTC hourly candlestick, it appears calm on the surface, but the turning point of the market is actually hidden in these details. Let’s break it down:

Technical signals triple confirmation
The closing price settled at 91104.1, which is interesting. The Bollinger Bands are extremely compressed, with the upper band at 91723.6 and the lower band at 89796.4. Volatility has dropped to a weekly low—this is the so-called "calm before the storm."

On the MACD side, DIF (28.2) and DEA (50.4) are already close together, looking like a death cross is imminent, but a closer look shows this is actually a sign of weakening bearish momentum. Trading volume has shrunk to around 683, indicating a clear lack of selling pressure in the market. Historical experience tells us that low-volume consolidation often signals a corner for a one-sided trend.

Key support and resistance levels to remember:
- Break above 91700, next target is 92500 or even 93000
- Hold above 90500, the bulls’ basic position remains intact

On-chain data insights

In the last 24 hours, whale addresses have net accumulated 5200 BTC, which is a significant number. Meanwhile, BTC balances on exchanges have fallen to a 3-year low, and miner outflows have decreased by 30%—what does this combination of signals indicate? Smart money is quietly accumulating, and selling pressure in the market is nearly exhausted.

Hash rate continues to rise in sync, the network remains robust, and the fundamentals are solid—nothing to worry about here.

Triggering news factors

The Federal Reserve signaled a "moderate balance sheet reduction" last night, and risk assets are starting to stir. Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net inflows for 5 consecutive days, with $1.2 billion flowing in, reigniting institutional buying enthusiasm. Regulatory uncertainty is easing, and market sentiment indicators are shifting from fear to greed—often a good sign for opportunities.

My outlook for the future

Combining technical analysis, on-chain data, and news factors, my clear view is: bulls have accumulated enough energy, and bears are about to lose their grip. At this current oscillation end, the probability of an upward breakout exceeds 80%.

Target levels: short-term target is 93000, medium-term target is 95000; risk control line is at 89800 (Bollinger lower band).

Honestly, in a bull market, the easiest money is made during a pullback, but only if you manage your positions well. My advice is to enter gradually, don’t go all-in at once. Set your stop-loss properly, and keep a steady mindset.

In my ten years of trading, this "contraction-explosion" pattern has appeared 13 times in BTC history, with 11 of those resulting in successful upward breakouts. The data speaks for itself, and logic doesn’t lie.

If you’re still on the sidelines, you might miss the first key wave of this year. Keep an eye on the hourly volume signals—once 91700 is effectively broken, it’s a good opportunity to add positions. Otherwise, hold your coins and wait, let the market breathe a bit.

In a bull market, you don’t need to guess the top, but following the right trend gives you the best chance to win.