2026-01-09 04:40:50

#以太坊大户持仓变化 Ethereum has dropped again on the 1-hour chart. Rebound? Don’t believe it, that’s just trap trading. The bearish situation has been confirmed, and I’ll explain the core logic to everyone.

From a technical perspective, the situation is quite clear. The moving average system has formed a classic "waterfall" pattern—MA5 tightly pressing down on MA10. Every rebound that can’t break above 3100 is weak. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward, and the price is hugging the lower band, steadily declining—this is a typical main downtrend. Another detail: MACD below zero has played a "false golden cross," with green bars shrinking, but DIF and DEA are still diverging. The message is clear: moments of rebound are when big funds are fleeing.

On-chain data is also not optimistic. Continuous net inflows into exchanges for three days indicate whales are transferring Ethereum to major trading platforms. The contract market’s long-short ratio remains high, with no signs of panic selling or covering. From another angle, this means the downward momentum is still strong.

What about the news? There are many regulatory issues. The US delayed the Ethereum ETF decision until May, and regulatory shadows still loom. The Federal Reserve’s expectation of "maintaining high interest rates longer" is strengthening, putting pressure on risk assets. Vitalik recently hasn’t issued any technical bullish signals, and the ecosystem narrative feels somewhat disconnected.

How to operate? Here’s my thinking:
When the price rebounds to the 3080-3100 range, go short directly, with a stop-loss above the previous 3150.
The first target is 2980, which is a previous low support level. The second target is 2850, a weekly support level.
Bottom fishing? Absolutely not. If you want to go long, wait until the daily closes above 3200 and confirm a reversal with on-chain net outflows.

Honest truth: the trend is your friend. Going against the trend and holding positions is just gambling. Currently, the market is sending consistent signals from technical, on-chain, and news perspectives—ignoring them is like fighting against your own USDT in your account.

ETH-0.77%

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ser_ngmi

· 2h ago

I'm tired of the hype, but this time the data is indeed a bit tight. When whales transfer coins to exchanges, this move never lies.

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LiquidationWatcher

· 01-09 05:06

It's the same old story again. I'm tired of hearing the MACD fake golden cross routine.

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DegenMcsleepless

· 01-09 05:05

The trick of诱多... I'm already tired of it, always saying the same thing every time, and what’s the result? --- 3100 keeps breaking repeatedly, I'm exhausted, almost out of stop-loss funds. --- Whales are throwing money into the exchange, are they trying to dump the market, or what? --- Waiting for Vitalik to give a positive signal? Then when should I expect that... --- Not bottom-fishing is the right move, one time getting caught is enough. --- Trend followers? Right now, it's just a game of bouncing back, can't tell the difference at all. --- Can that support at 2850 really hold? I feel like it might break again. --- Looking at this analysis, should I clear my position or hold on... --- The shadow of regulation is really annoying, when will it finally settle down.

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TokenSherpa

· 01-09 04:55

ngl the macd fake crossover detail is actually solid, let me examine the data here—historically speaking, we see this pattern right before major capitulation events. if you study the governance precedent from previous bear cycles, the whale migration to exchanges fundamentally shifts the voting power dynamics, tbh

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ChenjiajunFlowerSea

· 01-09 04:48

Stop analyzing blindly.

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