#美国贸易赤字状况 Silver midday summary: Range-bound tug-of-war, waiting for a breakout signal

The early session was quite tangled; silver oscillated around the 76.5 level, swinging in sync with gold. Currently, the market is focused on two major events—non-farm employment data and US tariff decisions—both bulls and bears are battling, and neither side can dominate in the short term. Fundamentally, the Fed signaling rate cuts supports silver prices, but the ongoing weakness in global manufacturing PMI dampens the outlook, as precious metal and industrial attributes compete.

What does the technical picture look like? On the 4-hour K-line, silver is consolidating below the middle Bollinger Band, with the MACD showing a widening death cross, but the KDJ's J value has started to turn upward, indicating a possible short-term rebound. The 1-hour chart shows a rebound after bottoming at 73.8, now oscillating near the middle band, facing resistance at the upper Bollinger Band; the 5-minute chart shows narrow consolidation, with the 75.5 level holding up well. Looking at the daily chart, after falling from the high of 82.7, the first resistance zone is between 78-80, with key support at 73-74. If it breaks below 73-74, support around 70 is waiting below.

The trading strategy is straightforward: buy low and sell high within the range. If it retraces to 73-74, consider going long; if it drops further, add positions at 70-71 with a stop-loss at 69.5, targeting 76-77 above; if it breaks upward, look for 79-80. Conversely, a rebound to 78-80 can be shorted, with additional shorts at 80-82, stop-loss at 82.5, targeting 76-75; if it breaks downward, watch for 73-72. The key is to wait for the critical level to determine the direction.