When I was young, I thought the last big question in math was the hardest; only when I grew up did I realize that the real challenge is understanding the logic behind mortgage rate policies.

Recently, I saw an interesting move: when high mortgage rates lead to a decline in transaction volume, some national policymakers step in directly—investing $200 billion to buy mortgage-backed securities, with a clear goal of lowering interest rates. This tactic isn't exactly new; it's like a neighborhood fruit shop owner noticing durian sales are slow, so they buy a few boxes and leave them at the door to open and cut, and the aroma naturally attracts customers. It’s just scaled up from retail to the financial market.

Ironically, the people pushing this policy a few months ago publicly claimed that the housing crisis was fabricated, and now they’ve become the main force in market rescue. This gave me an insight: in the adult world, there are no real "slaps in the face," only "strategic adjustments of direction."

As for how effective this move will be in practice? Honestly, predicting it is like forecasting the weather—if the forecast says it will rain in the afternoon, we should still consider bringing an umbrella. Policy signals and market reactions often have a time lag; whether the mortgage market can truly stabilize in the short term depends on subsequent data.

For investors paying attention to macroeconomic trends, this kind of policy shift is worth noting. Changes in the interest rate environment directly impact risk asset pricing, and the crypto market has always been highly sensitive to Federal Reserve policy adjustments. The market trend in 2026 will largely depend on how these major macro policies ultimately evolve.