#密码资产动态追踪 The one-hour trend of Ethereum this wave, I need to have a good chat—on the surface, it looks like oscillation, but underneath, dark currents are surging. The shakeout pattern is already very obvious.

**Technical Analysis**

The Bollinger Bands best illustrate the issue. The lower band has started to flatten in the past two days. Although the upper band is still slanting downward, the bearish momentum is weakening from a structural perspective. The repeated tests around the 3100 level, with quick rebounds each time it dips, are not genuine declines—they are shakeouts.

The MACD's green bars are clearly shrinking, and the DIF remains below DEA, but the slope slowing down is a sign. This kind of bottom divergence usually indicates an imminent reversal. Looking at the moving averages, multiple lines are converging. Once the bullish divergence expands, the 1-hour timeframe will quickly open up space. As long as it can hold above 3150, a short-term upward channel can be directly established.

**On-Chain Data Insights**

The surface calm is actually an illusion. Several large addresses I’ve been monitoring are quietly increasing their holdings. These smart money moves are not without reason. More importantly, the Ethereum reserves on exchanges have been decreasing for three consecutive days—what does this mean? Institutions are buying on dips amid volatility, while retail investors are panicking and selling off. This classic reversal signal appears exactly like this—the behavior of smart money and retail investors is completely opposite.

**News Sentiment Is Actually Positive**

There’s been no significant negative news recently, which is actually a good thing. The market has been given enough time for technical correction. In the upcoming upgrade cycle, institutions will definitely participate actively at low levels. Missing this dip to buy could mean waiting a long time for another opportunity.

**My Judgment**

This range is the short-term bottom. Every dip below 3100 is an opportunity to add positions, provided your risk management is in place. I’ve already been gradually accumulating. Many market reversals happen in despair; rather than waiting for a rally to chase high, it’s better to start acting now.

**Support and Resistance Are Clear**

Recent support is around 3080-3100, with resistance at 3150-3180. Once it breaks through 3180, a large number of short-term stop-loss orders will be triggered, and a rapid surge toward 3250 is highly probable.

**Final Words**

In a bull market, declines are often just shakeouts; in a bear market, rebounds are the repeated pinpricks. The current market attribute is very clear—this is a shakeout in a bull market. Hold your chips firmly and don’t get shaken out. When the rebound truly arrives, remember to come back and check.