#密码资产动态追踪 Non-farm Payrolls data tonight will shake the market, and the crypto market is once again at a testing moment.

The first US non-farm payrolls report of 2026 will be released promptly at 21:30 tonight! The expected increase in employment is 60,000, with the previous figure at 64,000, and unemployment rate data will also be released. An event of this level of significance causes fluctuations across global financial markets, and the crypto sector is naturally no exception.

Why pay attention to non-farm data? Ultimately, it’s a simple matter: it reflects the strength of US employment, which in turn influences the dollar’s trend and investors’ risk appetite.

**Better-than-expected employment data** → Economic prosperity → The Federal Reserve may continue to maintain high interest rates to combat inflation → US dollar appreciation → Risk assets like Bitcoin come under pressure

**Worse-than-expected employment data** → Economic signals weaken → Rate cut expectations rise → US dollar softens → Capital seeks refuge in digital assets for preservation

How to interpret this time? The forecast has already been revised down to 60,000. If the actual figure is worse, the market will immediately hype up the logic of “rate cuts are really coming,” which is short-term favorable for crypto. But if it exceeds the previous 64,000, then a short-term correction is to be expected, and the market may test the bottom. However, from a cyclical perspective, a rate cut cycle will eventually arrive; falling prices are actually an opportunity to get in.

The key variables in the crypto market are just a few: dollar strength, market sentiment, and the intentions of large capital players. Bad data is bullish, good data is bearish, but what to watch out for is—institutions often play manipulation around such major data releases, with tactics like false signals and liquidation traps.

**Advice for traders:**

1. Enter with a light position or observe during the data release period; avoid heavy bets on direction.
2. Watch the market reaction in the first 30 minutes after the release, confirm the trend before following up.
3. Keep a steady mindset—sharp rises and falls often happen in an instant. Better to miss out than to make wrong decisions.

The moment the data lands often best reflects the true market sentiment. Tonight’s event is mainly about understanding the underlying logical chain, rather than blindly following the crowd.