THE XRP PROFITABILITY TRAP: WILL 83% GREEN PORTFOLIOS TRIGGER A MASSIVE DIP?

As the second week of January 2026 unfolds, XRP is grappling with its own success. After a blistering 33% recovery from its December 31 lows, the asset has hit a formidable “supply wall” at $2.41. While the technical structure remains bullish on higher timeframes, on-chain data reveals a growing risk: a staggering 83% of all XRP holders are now in profit. Historically, when profitability levels hit this “overheated” zone, a wave of sell pressure often follows as investors look to secure gains. With the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) hitting levels that previously preceded a 14% correction, the market is bracing for a “sell pressure-induced” dip that could test the conviction of the new 2026 buyers. I. The $2.41 “Cost-Basis Wall”: 1.5 Billion Reasons to Sell The primary hurdle for XRP’s continued ascent is the massive supply cluster sitting between $2.39 and $2.41. According to cost-basis distribution data, roughly 1.56 billion XRP were accumulated in this narrow price range during previous market cycles. For many of these holders, the return to $2.41 is a chance to “break even” after months of underwater positions. This creates a natural ceiling of selling pressure. For the bullish rally to unlock its next target of $2.69, buyers must decisively absorb this 1.5-billion-token wall. Failure to close above $2.41 on a daily timeframe could signal that the bulls are exhausted, potentially triggering a retreat to support levels. II. NUPL and the Profitability Crisis: Lessons from History The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric a favorite for identifying market tops is currently hovering between 0.48 and 0.49. This specific range is a historical “danger zone” for XRP. The last time the network reached this level of unrealized profit, it was followed by a swift 14% correction over the following nine days. With 83% of the network currently “in the money,” the temptation for retail and institutional players to lock in gains is at a multi-month high. This “sell-the-news” sentiment is reflected in the On-Balance Volume (OBV), which has begun to flatten out despite the price remaining elevated, suggesting that buying momentum is losing its “oomph.” III. The Support Floor: Defending the $1.77 Triple Bottom Despite the looming threat of a dip, the broader structural outlook for XRP remains resilient. The current rally was built on a solid “triple bottom” foundation at $1.77, a level that has been defended by bulls multiple times. Even if the $2.41 wall triggers a pullback, the rally remains technically intact as long as the price holds above this $1.77 base. Immediate support rests at $2.26, followed by a more significant psychological floor at $1.90. Traders are closely watching the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, which are nearing a “Golden Cross” a signal that could provide the long-term structural support needed to eventually smash through the current resistance. IV. Essential Financial Disclaimer This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. High profitability percentages (83%) and NUPL levels are interpretive on-chain metrics and do not guarantee a price decline. Market conditions, including regulatory developments or institutional “whale” activity, can override historical patterns. The $2.69 upside target and $1.77 support floor are speculative technical levels. XRP is a volatile digital asset; always conduct your own exhaustive research (DYOR) and consult with a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Are you part of the 83% in profit and planning to sell the $2.41 wall, or are you holding for the $2.69 breakout?