Whales "bleeding" ETH, bears quietly harvesting: The Ice and Fire Song of the January 9th Crypto Market

When BTC OG insider whales fall from the throne, when high-leverage longs face liquidation fears, and when Wall Street institutions engage in life-and-death battles with native crypto whales—the market upheaval behind the $790 million positions is redefining the crypto landscape of 2026.

1. The "Darkest Hour" of Whales: ETH Longs with Over $10 Million Unrealized Losses

On January 9th, Coinbob's monitored addresses showed that the once-dominant "BTC OG Insider Whale" account first shifted from unrealized gains to unrealized losses, with its $630 million ETH long position suffering a $5.42 million loss (-4.5%), with an entry price of $3,147. This whale, top holder of ETH, BTC, and SOL on Hyperliquid, with a total position of about $790 million, now dims in the price turbulence.

Similarly, "CZ Opponent" with $177 million ETH longs is also unrealized $4.8 million in loss, average entry at $3,190. Worse, its $82.1 million XRP long position is unrealized $6.9 million in loss. The combined unrealized losses of these top whales on ETH alone exceed $10 million.

But this is just the tip of the iceberg. Early this morning, "pension-usdt.eth" opened a 3x leveraged ETH long (position $62.1 million, average price $3,097) with an unrealized loss of $140,000, with a liquidation price as low as $1,608. This is a gamble of life and death—if ETH drops below $3,100, the risk of liquidation skyrockets exponentially.

At this moment, ETH longs are bleeding.

2. The "Harvester" of Shorts: ZEC's Largest Short with Unrealized $6.31 Million Profit

While longs struggle in the mud, shorts are quietly harvesting.

After continuously taking profits on FARTCOIN shorts last night and this morning, the "ZEC Largest Short" has an unrealized profit of $6.31 million on its $143 million ETH short, with an average entry of $3,239. Currently, this account holds about $177 million in total shorts, maintaining the top position among platform shorts on ETH, ZEC, and MON.

Meanwhile, "Shanzhai Short Army Leader" continues adding to ZEC shorts, with BTC shorts reaching $8.15 million (average price $91,800), and maintaining the largest short position on LIT on Hyperliquid ($13.97 million, average $2.7).

The divergence between bulls and bears has reached an extreme. This is not just a simple price game but a fundamental confrontation over market direction.

3. The "Smart Money" Shifts: Why is Strategy Opponent Selling SOL Frenziedly?

Amid the fierce battle, the movements of "Strategy Opponent" are worth noting. Over the past three hours, this address has been continuously closing SOL longs, sharply reducing its position by over $22 million. Meanwhile, its BTC long (worth $137 million, average price $90,600) shows an unrealized profit of $610,000, with total holdings still at $355 million.

This "reducing SOL and increasing BTC" move aligns with the latest Wall Street trends.

According to CoinDesk, Bitmine Immersion increased its ETH holdings by 33,000 this week, surpassing 4.1 million ETH (worth over $14 billion), accounting for 3.4% of total ETH supply. Meanwhile, Wall Street giants like Tom Lee warn of "extreme volatility in 2026" but still maintain the prediction that "Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high in January."

Smart money is retreating from high-risk altcoins and focusing on core assets like BTC.

4. Macro Environment: Liquidity Traps and Regulatory Winds Paradox

Behind whale battles, the macro environment shows a complex picture:

1. Liquidity Crisis Alarm

Despite Bitcoin hovering above $94,000, Glassnode data shows spot trading volume has fallen to its lowest since 2023. CoinDesk points out: "Bitcoin rally masks fragile liquidity." This indicates current price support is weak, and any large-scale sell-off could trigger a waterfall decline.

2. The Fed's "Three-piece Suit" Releases Massive Liquidity

According to December FOMC minutes, the Fed has canceled the standing repo (SRP) daily limit of $500 billion, allowing banks to borrow from the Fed with unlimited government bond collateral. This policy shift means market liquidity is actually at its most abundant in history, creating a strange contrast with the crypto market's "low trading volume."

3. ETF Capital Flows Show Divergence

CoinDesk data shows that in 2025, spot Bitcoin ETF saw four consecutive weeks of net outflows of $12 billion, but in the past five weeks, net inflows reached $6.63 billion. BlackRock's crypto portfolio has surged from $54.77 billion at the start of the year to $102.09 billion. Institutional funds are oscillating between "fear" and "greed."

4. Regulatory Winds Favorable

Japan's Finance Minister publicly supports crypto trading on exchanges; the US SEC and CFTC are now both led by pro-crypto Republicans; Goldman Sachs states "regulatory clarity will drive the next wave of institutional adoption." Policy support hits record highs, but market activity remains subdued.

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5. Market Truths: Three Realities You Must Know

Reality 1: Unrealized Losses of Whales ≠ Market Top

Current ETH price is around $3,200, while whales' average entry prices are between $3,097 and $3,190, with losses of only 4.5%. This is normal in crypto volatility. The real danger lies in high-leverage positions like "pension-usdt.eth"—3x leverage means a 10% price move can trigger liquidation.

Reality 2: Bear Profit ≠ Trend Reversal

ZEC's largest short with $6.31 million unrealized profit seems significant, but its ETH short average price is $3,239, and current price is $3,200, with only 1.2% profit. This looks more like a hedge than a trend-based short. The real bearish force is still watching.

Reality 3: Abandoning SOL ≠ End of Public Chain Wars

The unwinding of Strategy opponent’s SOL position may be tactical. According to CryptoSlate, Solana's DeFi total lock-up increased by 37% in Q4 2025, indicating no fundamental deterioration. Whale repositioning may be to avoid short-term volatility rather than long-term bearishness.

6. Retail Survival Guide: How to Protect Yourself Under Whale Shadows?

In the face of the $790 million whale showdown, how can ordinary investors survive?

Strategy 1: Stay Away from High Leverage, Live to See Tomorrow

The 3x leverage of pension-usdt.eth is a wake-up call. Current market liquidity is fragile; any move over 10% can trigger cascading liquidations. It’s recommended to keep leverage below 2x or hold spot.

Strategy 2: Follow Smart Money, Not Emotional Whales

The move of Strategy opponent reducing SOL and increasing BTC is instructive. Capital flows from Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, and others show that the core opportunities in 2026 remain in BTC and a few high-quality mainstream coins. Altcoin frenzy may be ending.

Strategy 3: Use Gold as a Risk Anchor

As previously analyzed, allocating 30%-40% of your portfolio in gold can effectively hedge crypto volatility. The current whale unrealized losses prove that going all-in on crypto carries risks far beyond expectations.

Strategy 4: Focus on Liquidation Price, Not Whale Cost Basis

Whale entry prices of $3,147 and $3,190 are of limited reference to retail traders. What truly matters is pension-usdt.eth’s $1,608 liquidation price—this is the "bottom line" of the market. Before reaching this level, ETH may experience intense volatility.

7. Conclusion: The 2026 Crypto Market Belongs to Those Who Survive

The whale data on January 9th reveals a brutal truth: as the market shifts from "liquidity glut" to "stock game," the battles among whales will intensify. The unrealized losses of BTC OG insider whales, the harvest of ZEC's largest short, and Strategy opponent’s repositioning all signal the arrival of a new era—brutal HODL strategies are failing, and refined risk management is the only way to survive.

Tom Lee warns that "2026 will be extremely volatile," but it’s also the year with the most opportunities. Every mistake by whales is a learning opportunity for retail; every liquidation marks the start of a new cycle.

Remember: in this $790 million game, your goal is not to beat whales but to survive their war and find your own Alpha.

【Interactive Topic】

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