Since 2026 opened, the environment Bitcoin is in has been significantly different from earlier cycles' early rebounds. Recently, the technical aspect appears to be repairing, and in the short-term strategy, a slightly more aggressive approach can be considered. However, from a larger structural perspective, the conditions to support a sustained upward wave are still not sufficiently fulfilled. History shows that once the price falls below the one-year moving average, the subsequent range often tests investors' resolve. Coupled with new incoming funds weakening and inflow speed slowing down, this round of market movement resembles an environment where careful opportunity selection and strict adherence to trading discipline are necessary.

Super whales are reducing their holdings, but their approach is very deliberate. On-chain data indicates that long-term holders have been steadily distributing their positions. After the launch of the spot ETF in early 2024, these super whales increased their positions during the early-year pullback. The turning point occurred in October 2024 — their actions shifted from "adding to positions" to "reducing positions." So far, this group has sold approximately billion USD worth of Bitcoin, and they have continued net selling over the past 30 days.

Interestingly, this selling pressure has been mostly absorbed by medium-sized whales, resulting in a tug-of-war with prices moving back and forth at high levels, rather than rapid surges or panic selling. Compared to the indiscriminate sell-off after the peak in spring 2021, this round of reduction is much more orderly and resembles the typical actions of mature funds in the late stage of a cycle — a signal that Bitcoin may have already entered a cyclical top zone.

From the perspective of incremental funds, momentum is weakening, and the price is approaching a key support level.