U.S. December Non-Farm Payrolls will be announced tonight at 21:30. The market generally predicts that the number of new jobs will be between 60,000 and 70,000, with the unemployment rate expected to drop to 4.5%. The key significance of this data lies in its direct impact on market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction.

Let's first consider the most likely scenario: if the data meets or slightly exceeds expectations (60,000 to 100,000 new jobs), it indicates a resilient labor market and that the economy is heading toward a soft landing. This would weaken expectations of further rate cuts in 2026, potentially pushing the dollar higher, while stocks and gold may face a pullback.

Secondly, if the data is significantly strong (more than 100,000 new jobs), market concerns about persistent inflation will deepen. Such worries often further stimulate the appreciation of the dollar, while stocks and precious metals will face downward pressure.

On the flip side, if the data falls below expectations (less than 50,000 new jobs), it will strengthen market expectations for the Fed to implement larger rate cuts. In this context, stocks and gold may rebound, and the dollar could weaken. For investors focusing on BTC and ETH, the tug-of-war between the dollar's strength and risk assets is worth close monitoring.