A quite interesting betting game is currently underway in the prediction market—gold versus ETH, which one will reach $5,000 first. So far, nearly $840,000 has been committed to this wager. The market assigns a 68% probability that gold will break $5,000 first. The deadline for the bet is set for June 30, 2026; whoever reaches the target first wins. If neither reaches it by then, the stakes are settled at 50% each.



Interestingly, the price references are quite specific—gold is based on the continuous contract quotes from COMEX, while ETH prices refer to the ETH/USDT trading pair on a major exchange. This setup is likely to avoid disputes. Notably, cross-asset class predictions like this are quite rare—on one side, traditional safe-haven asset gold, and on the other, emerging crypto assets, each with their supporters.
ETH-0,07%
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GasOptimizervip
· 2h ago
ETH is the future, gold is outdated. The 68% probability indicates that the market is still undervaluing the potential of cryptocurrencies. --- $840,000 wasted here; better to go all-in on spot holdings. --- 2026 is still early; gold might crash this time. It all depends on whether ETH can truly break 5000. --- Why insist on betting on this? Wouldn't it be better to just hold ETH? --- The showdown between traditional finance and Web3 is finally getting interesting. --- Just curious, how was that 68% calculated? It feels a bit conservative.
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ProofOfNothingvip
· 01-09 11:01
Betting 5000 on ETH really can't win; gold is much more stable.
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DuckFluffvip
· 01-09 10:58
There are more and more conservative gold investors, but I bet ETH will break 5000 before 2026... After all, that's how the bull market cycle works.
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SurvivorshipBiasvip
· 01-09 10:56
Gold has a 68% odds? Nah, this betting game is just cutting the leeks of those who are bearish on ETH. When the time comes, you'll hear those "I told you so" folks talking nonsense again.
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RiddleMastervip
· 01-09 10:53
ETH to 5000? That's a bit doubtful, gold is much more stable.
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AltcoinTherapistvip
· 01-09 10:34
ETH to hit 5000? Dream on. Gold has a 68% odds sitting there. I'll bet on gold reaching first.
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AirDropMissedvip
· 01-09 10:33
The 68% gold odds... Are you joking? ETH needs two more years to break 5000. You guys must be making a fortune on this gamble.
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