Every time the US non-farm payroll data is released, the crypto market falls into a "stress response" mode. Sharp fluctuations of 3%-5% within 2 hours are common, and during intense battles between bulls and bears, there can even be "spike行情," leaving many retail investors hanging in just a few minutes.

However, this grand wave of market volatility is gradually losing its dominance. Currently, 60% of major US banks have officially integrated Bitcoin services, and the capital inflow into spot ETFs each year far exceeds the output of miners. As institutional investors continue to pour in, the pricing logic of the virtual currency market is quietly changing—price fluctuations are increasingly driven by endogenous factors such as on-chain activity and regulatory policies. The impact of non-farm data is more like a short-term "interlude," which, once released, passes quickly and is unlikely to shake the long-term trend.

In simple terms, the impact of non-farm data on the crypto market depends on Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and the US dollar's performance. Strong non-farm data usually boosts expectations of rate hikes, putting short-term pressure on prices; weak data tends to increase expectations of rate cuts, often leading to a rebound opportunity in the crypto market. However, this correlation is weakening—the market's focus has shifted to its own fundamentals.