The adjustment phase in the cryptocurrency market continues — Bitcoin in December is negative, symbolizing a turbulent year.

December, the final month of 2025, saw Bitcoin (BTC) close with a -2.85% decline. Following declines of -3.69% in October and -17.67% in November, this marks the third consecutive month of negative performance, with the entire Q4 experiencing a correction of approximately 23% from the peak of around $126,000 in early October. The year-end trading price settled at approximately $87,500, diverging from market expectations.

Continuing Risk Aversion Trends and Pressure on the Cryptocurrency Market

The overall bearish trend in the cryptocurrency market toward the end of the year is supported not merely by cyclical price movements but by structural factors. Caution over US technology stocks’ high valuations continues to weigh on risk assets in general, and Bitcoin markets are no exception.

According to CoinGlass data, the average return in December historically has been +4.16%, but this time, at -2.85%, the result is below the typical range. It is close to the historical median of -2.97%, indicating no extraordinary price movement. However, since December 2024 also ended at -2.85%, this marks an unusual two-year streak of negative December performance.

While past examples include significant gains such as +46.92% in 2020 and +12.18% in 2023, recent changes in December market conditions are clearly recognized.

Institutional Capital Outflows Influence the Market

According to Reuters reports, Bitcoin experienced a decline of over $18,000 in November, marking its largest correction since May 2021. This is driven by seasonal decreases in market liquidity and waning investor sentiment.

A more critical point is the trend of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, as reported by Bloomberg. Throughout Q4, these funds shifted to net selling, reducing the buying pressure from institutional investors that had previously supported the market. Data from Deutsche Bank also confirms this, showing continued outflows from cryptocurrency-related products from November through December.

Outlook for 2026 and Market Participants’ Expectations

Several market analysts anticipate improved liquidity and a recovery in institutional investor demand in early 2026. Market forecast ranges are set with an upper target of $200,000 (approximately ¥31.2 million) and a lower target of $75,000 (approximately ¥11.7 million), suggesting significant volatility.

Given the current risk-return environment in the cryptocurrency market, the trend at the start of the year is likely to have a substantial impact on the overall trajectory for 2026. The capital decisions of market participants and the timing of institutional re-entry are expected to be key factors influencing Bitcoin prices moving forward.