New Wallet bets $23,000 on Israel attacking Iran before the end of January, sparking a betting frenzy on Middle East tensions in the prediction market

Two newly created wallets spent $23,000 on the prediction market Polymarket, betting that “Israel will attack Iran before January 31, 2026.” This transaction has once again sparked attention: why are new wallets concentrating their bets on geopolitical risks? How does the prediction market serve as a barometer of market participant sentiment?

Concentrated Bets by New Wallets

According to on-chain monitoring by Lookonchain, these two new wallets are (0x3e5…a908) (goldbless) and (0xa06…e5a9) (Getthegoop). Their common characteristics are quite obvious:

• Account attributes: both are newly created wallets
• Investment amount: a total of $23,000
• Transaction direction: single-direction betting
• Prediction content: Israel will attack Iran before January 31

This pattern of transactions is traceable in on-chain data—new wallets often indicate participants trying to avoid identity tracking, and concentrated bets on a single event reflect a clear market expectation.

Market Sentiment Indicators in the Prediction Market

Interestingly, this is not an isolated event. According to the latest news, as early as January 8, Lookonchain detected four new wallets predicting “the U.S. will strike Iran before January 31, 2026” on the same prediction market.

This forms a clear trend:

Although the subjects of the two predictions differ (one is the U.S., the other is Israel), both point to the same time window and geographic region. This concentrated prediction betting indicates that market participants have a certain consensus expectation that the situation in the Middle East may escalate before the end of January.

Implications of Concentrated Bets by New Wallets

From an on-chain data analysis perspective, the appearance and concentration of new wallets can have several possible explanations:

Reflection of genuine market sentiment

Prediction markets are an information aggregation mechanism where participants vote with real money. The appearance of new wallets may represent informed or predictive participants expressing their views.

Limited reference value of the data

However, it should also be noted that new wallets could be testing accounts, multi-account operations, or for other purposes. It is not possible to fully determine the true intent of these funds solely from on-chain data.

Observation

Prediction markets are becoming an increasingly important market indicator. Unlike complex derivatives in traditional finance, participants in prediction markets use relatively small amounts of capital to express expectations about future events. These transaction data are monitored and disclosed in real-time by on-chain analysis platforms, forming a transparent indicator of market sentiment.

According to Lookonchain’s monitoring data, recent prediction transactions related to geopolitical risks have increased significantly. This reflects that cryptocurrency market participants are paying more attention to macro risk environments.

Summary

The two new wallets betting that Israel will attack Iran before January 31, although the amounts are not large, reflect ongoing concern about the Middle East situation in the prediction market. Coupled with the data from four new wallets predicting U.S. action against Iran the day before, it indicates that market participants have a certain shared expectation of geopolitical risks before the end of January.

The key point is: prediction markets are becoming a direct reflection of market sentiment. The transparency of on-chain data allows these transactions to be monitored in real-time. However, it is also important to recognize that individual transactions have limited reference value; a comprehensive assessment requires multiple data dimensions. Future focus should be on whether such prediction transactions will continue to increase and how the final events will develop.