XRP Pierces 13-Month Support Zone, Technical Analysis Points to Deeper Correction

XRP has finally broken through a critical price anchor that had been holding firm for over a year. The $1.95 level, which served as a key support area on the chart, has now been decisively closed below on higher timeframes, particularly on the 2-week chart. This marks the first time in 13 months that this structural support has given way, signaling potential downside pressure ahead.

Crypto analyst Guy on the Earth highlighted the significance of this technical breakdown. According to his analysis, XRP’s weekly close below $1.95 represents only the second failure of this zone in recent history, with April’s tariff-related selloff being the first instance. The technical framework he outlined treats $1.95 not merely as a price level, but as the lower boundary of a broader consolidation rectangle on the chart.

Technical Target and Downside Implications

Once this support anchor broke, the measured-move calculation becomes critical. Guy identified $0.90 as the projected technical target for this breakdown. This represents roughly a 50% additional decline from current levels, presenting a significant risk for holders who remain positioned through the move. The analysis underscores that $1.95’s reclaim would serve as the key invalidation of this bearish scenario.

However, he cautioned against expecting a straight-line cascade toward the target. “We’ve already moved down in a fairly linear fashion for weeks, so it’s unlikely these levels get hit immediately,” he noted. The most realistic near-term support he identified sits at $1.42, with a potential weekly low that could materialize if selling intensifies alongside broader BTC weakness.

Managing Risk During the Breakdown

For traders uncomfortable with downside exposure, Guy outlined a pragmatic risk-management strategy. Selling into the breakdown to reduce position size to comfortable levels, then re-entering on a daily close above $1.95, would limit realized losses to a minimal percentage. However, if the move continues to $0.90, holders remaining positioned would face the full 50% capital loss.

For those viewing the breakdown as a buying opportunity rather than a warning sign, he identified intermediate support zones across the chart: $1.61, $1.42, and ultimately $0.90, with $0.75 marking the initial breakout level on extended moves.

Liquidity Concerns Add to the Bearish Case

Beyond pure technical considerations, Guy emphasized that low liquidity conditions—particularly heading into year-end holiday periods—may exacerbate downside pressure. “People tend to reduce risk during holiday seasons, and thin liquidity could accelerate declines,” he explained.

Debate Over Timeframe Validity

Not all market participants agreed with the timeframe selection used to confirm the breakdown. One XRP whale account questioned the significance of the 2-week chart, arguing that selecting a specific timeframe to match a particular narrative lacked credibility. Guy defended his methodology by pointing to the 13-month consolidation period on higher timeframes and the monthly support level that had held throughout this entire period.

Some bulls countered by pointing to historical precedent, suggesting that any price dip below $1.00 would be short-lived and could set up a stronger rally toward new all-time highs. Guy acknowledged this possibility while maintaining that the technical math—at least on a measured-move basis—still points toward $0.90 as the calculated target, even if a recovery occurs before reaching that level.

At the time of analysis, XRP was trading near $1.89, with current market data showing the token at $2.10, suggesting partial recovery from the breakdown levels.