Bitcoin's Next Phase Isn't What Analysts Expected—Here's Why

The cryptocurrency market is sending mixed signals. Bitcoin dropped over $40,000 from its October all-time high of $126,080, now hovering around $90,510, triggering widespread pessimism about whether we’ve already reached the cycle peak. Yet data analyst Nick Waterman argues the opposite: the cycle top hasn’t arrived, and institutional and retail investors remain unprepared for what comes next.

Historical Precedent: What Previous Cycles Reveal

Waterman points to a critical pattern across Bitcoin cycles—market corrections are not endpoints; they’re standard reset mechanisms. Each cycle has experienced similar pullbacks before reaching its ultimate peak. More notably, a peculiar relationship exists between precious metals and Bitcoin’s timeline.

Gold and silver both achieved December 2025 all-time highs while Bitcoin struggled during the same period. History suggests this sequence matters: in previous cycles, precious metals peaked before Bitcoin followed suit. Investors abandoning Bitcoin to chase gold and silver allocations may be front-running their own advantage. The message is clear—if precious metals have already signaled their peaks, Bitcoin’s breakout phase could be imminent.

The App Store Indicator Nobody’s Watching

One overlooked metric reveals the depth of current cycle positioning: the Coinbase mobile app ranking. In prior cycles, Coinbase climbed to the #1 position on app stores precisely as Bitcoin peaked. This time, when Bitcoin hit $126,080, Coinbase ranked only at #280.

This discrepancy suggests retail adoption remains nascent. If the historical correlation holds, we haven’t reached saturation—meaning substantial room exists for app downloads and market participation to surge.

Market Euphoria Hasn’t Peak Yet

Several technical indicators confirm the thesis. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index never crossed the 90 threshold during this cycle, indicating euphoria never reached historical extremes. Similarly, the MVRV Z-Score remains below 3, whereas previous cycle tops typically see this metric exceed 6. These metrics suggest the market hasn’t reached terminal excitement.

Altcoins offer additional confirmation. Major altcoins remain 60-80% below their all-time highs with no altseason momentum emerging—a typical precursor to the final cycle stage where retail money floods in seeking alpha.

What Happens Next

Nick Waterman’s framework suggests a predictable wave of re-entry. First come those who exited in early 2025, followed by 2024 departures, then the 2021-2022 cohort. The final signal—new retail investors en masse—will mark the cycle climax.

The narrative isn’t that Bitcoin is finished. It’s that most participants have already left, making their eventual return the true catalyst for what’s coming.