The Path to Bitcoin Recovery: Bullish Signals Indicated by Long-Term Holders' Reduced Withdrawals and Precious Metal Ratios

On-Chain Data Reveals Turning Point

While Bitcoin(BTC) is currently trading around $90.51K, an intriguing market signal has emerged. On-chain analysis of the cryptocurrency reveals that the large-scale selling phase by long-term holders (the so-called “whales”) has come to an end.

Throughout 2025, these large addresses recorded continuous outflows of funds. In particular, the selling pace accelerated in December, but the latest data shows a clear slowdown in the net position change of long-term holder supply. In other words, whales are no longer actively releasing their holdings.

This observation is extremely important when considering market developments in 2026. The fact that the long-term profit-taking pressure has run its course suggests that a foundation has been laid for the bulls to regain control. However, actual recovery depends on the emergence of buying demand, especially from large investors and institutional players. Currently, institutional fund flows remain negative, and whale activity is limited, so these conditions have not yet been met.

What the Precious Metals Market Trends Suggest for BTC

Another indicator that cryptocurrency analysts are paying attention to is the copper/gold ratio’s RSI (Relative Strength Index), which could provide clues about the next phase of Bitcoin’s price movement.

Specifically, there is a tendency for BTC prices to rise when the RSI of this ratio tests its lows again. Interestingly, this pattern has also been observed during recent Bitcoin declines. With gold and silver prices rising, traders may realize profits and flow into the crypto market, which could serve as one of the triggers supporting an upward scenario in 2026.

If past patterns repeat, Bitcoin could follow a gradual recovery trajectory throughout 2026.

Market Sentiment and Remaining Uncertainty

On the other hand, there are warning signs. Several analysts point out that the cryptocurrency market has entered a so-called “winter” phase, which could extend until 2026.

Looking at past cycles, crypto winters are characterized by demand shortages, price declines, and subdued on-chain activity. The current market situation exhibits some of these features, and overall sentiment remains engulfed in extreme fear.

Additionally, there is an interpretation that this winter is part of a four-year cycle extension, which contradicts optimistic forecasts that the market is heading toward a supercycle.

Most market participants are expected to remain on the sidelines until Bitcoin shows a clear trend direction. However, new market dynamics could be unleashed as early as January, potentially accelerating changes in the situation. The current uncertainty is temporary, and multiple indicators suggest that the probability of market recovery at some point in 2026 is increasing.