Bitcoin remains stagnant at $90.52K: Examining the possibility of breaking through $90,000 and the scenarios if it fails

Current Situation: Bullish Outlook Indicated by On-Chain Metrics

Bitcoin’s exchange reserves have plummeted to 2.75 million BTC, reaching multi-year lows. This suggests continued accumulation by large holders and a decrease in selling pressure from centralized exchanges, which can be interpreted as a long-term bullish signal.

Currently, the BTC price is around $90.52K, with a daily trading range limited to $89.31K–$91.65K. In the short term, it has gained +0.21% on the hourly chart, +0.15% over the past 24 hours, and +1.18% on the weekly chart, but buying momentum is not yet decisive.

Daily Chart Analysis: Understanding the Significance of the Breakout

Looking at the daily chart, BTC remains confined within a descending channel. The $90,000 level has been tested multiple times, but the 100-day and 200-day moving averages act as dynamic resistance above $95,000, preventing buyers from breaking through this zone.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows an upward trend and is near neutral territory, suggesting room for further gains. However, the relatively weak momentum indicates that this could merely be a rebound.

If repeated failures occur around the $90,000 zone, a retest of the support level at $80,000 becomes a realistic scenario.

4-Hour Chart: Tug-of-War in Short-Term Breakout Attempts

On the 4-hour chart, BTC remains within a short-term consolidation channel. The continuous rebounds from the $90,000 level form an intermediate resistance zone, and the battle in this area could mark a turning point in the short-term trend.

Simultaneously, higher lows are gradually being observed, and combined with rising lows, it suggests that buyers are quietly entering the market. The RSI’s upward movement supports this view.

A clear breakout above $90,000 would open the path toward the next target of $95,000 (a key resistance zone). Conversely, if the price is rejected in this area, a decline toward $86,000 is expected, and if the channel breaks down, it could lead to a significant drop into the $80,000 region.

Market Uncertainty and Future Outlook

There is a clear divergence between the bullish signals from on-chain data and the indecisiveness of technical patterns. While BTC continues to flow out of exchanges, the price remains stagnant.

As we approach Q1 2026, further range-bound trading and correction phases are likely. The growing uncertainty among market participants continues to test bullish narratives.

Before Bitcoin resumes its upward trajectory, how the current consolidation range is resolved will be the key focus for investors.