From 90,000 to 102,000: The macro logic and institutional forces behind Bitcoin's price increase forecast

CF Benchmarks Research Director Gabe Selby recently provided a relatively optimistic Bitcoin price forecast: driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions and institutional buying, Bitcoin could rise 15% from its current levels to $102,000. Behind this seemingly simple number, the prediction actually reflects several key variables in the crypto market by 2026.

Macro Logic Chain: From Labor Costs to Risk Assets

Gabe Selby’s forecast is based on a clear macroeconomic logic:

• Decline in labor costs → Reduced inflationary pressure → Continued Fed rate cuts → Liquidity support for risk assets
• This economic environment, known as the “Goldilocks” scenario (not too hot, not too recessionary), has historically been most friendly to risk assets like Bitcoin

Looking at current data, this logic is not just wishful thinking. According to the latest market data, Bitcoin’s current trading price is approximately $90,417, with a market cap of $1.81 trillion, accounting for 58.44% of the entire crypto market. If the Fed indeed maintains an easing policy into 2026, such risk assets could see valuation uplift.

Market Status: Opportunity or Trap in the Downtrend?

To understand the significance of this forecast, we need to clarify the current market position:

This comparison is quite interesting. Bitcoin has fallen about 30% from its all-time high, yet it is forecasted to rebound by 15%. This isn’t about setting new highs but about recovering part of the decline. Such a conservative forecast actually increases credibility—Gabe Selby isn’t predicting an all-time high but a modest rebound.

Institutional Adoption: The Real Variable in 2026

The most critical driver in the forecast is actually institutional adoption, not just macro conditions. Several data points mentioned in the news are noteworthy:

• Over $100 billion in assets are held by 14 US spot Bitcoin ETFs
• BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust leads with $67 billion AUM
• Morgan Stanley is preparing to launch new ETFs supporting Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies
• In later stages, institutions will incorporate digital assets into full discretionary strategies and model portfolios

What does this mean? It indicates that Bitcoin is gradually shifting from retail asset to part of institutional asset allocation. When Bitcoin becomes part of discretionary strategies and model portfolios, the scale of institutional holdings could see a qualitative leap. This isn’t short-term hype but a systemic adjustment in asset allocation frameworks.

Short-term Pressure vs. Long-term Logic

Interestingly, the news also mentions that investors withdrew over $400 million from Bitcoin spot ETFs on Thursday. This shows that even amid growing institutional adoption, short-term market sentiment can still be volatile. This contradiction is quite normal—the macro logic and institutional trends are long-term drivers, while short-term price movements are often driven by sentiment and technical factors.

Summary

Gabe Selby’s $102,000 forecast essentially reflects two trends: one is macroeconomic improvement under Fed easing, and the other is an increased weighting of Bitcoin in institutional asset allocations. Both trends are supported by data but are not certain. Macro policies may change, and institutional adoption could face regulatory hurdles.

From an investment perspective, this forecast neither advocates for a price surge nor suggests rushing to buy now. It points more toward a direction: if macro conditions and institutional movements develop as expected, a 15% rebound from current levels for Bitcoin is reasonable. The key is to closely monitor Fed policy developments and changes in ETF holdings—these factors will directly determine whether the forecast can be realized.