Market Structure Shows Troubling Signs As Bitcoin Approaches Critical Junction

Bitcoin’s technical landscape is flashing red lights, according to macroeconomist Henrik Zeberg, who recently outlined a concerning scenario where the world’s largest cryptocurrency faces elevated downside risks despite continued price resilience. The analyst points to specific chart patterns and momentum divergences that suggest the current market cycle may be entering its final, unstable phase.

The Long-Term Pattern Breaking Down

Zeberg’s primary concern centers on Bitcoin’s behavior when viewed through a monthly timeframe lens. The cryptocurrency has been tracing what technicians call an expanding diagonal formation—a pattern characterized by progressively wider price swings that create both higher peaks and lower troughs. Since Bitcoin’s inception, this long-term structure has been consolidating, but Zeberg argues we’re now witnessing the pattern’s final exhaustion phase.

What makes this pattern particularly significant is how it typically resolves. Rather than gradual retracement, expanding diagonals tend to break violently once they complete. The analyst identifies the current price zone as a classic topping formation, where further gains become increasingly fragile and unstable even if prices continue climbing higher.

The “Blow-Off” Narrative And What Comes After

Zeberg’s technical projection suggests Bitcoin could stage one final euphoric rally, potentially pushing prices toward the mid-$150,000 range before the structure breaks. However, he emphasizes this isn’t a sign of underlying strength—quite the opposite. Historical precedent suggests such final surges typically precede sharp reversals, much like what occurred during the dot-com bubble when the Nasdaq collapsed over 80%.

Applying Bitcoin’s historically amplified volatility to this scenario, Zeberg forecasts a potential drawdown of 97-98% from the eventual cycle top, translating into technical targets between $3,000 and $4,000. While current Bitcoin price sits around $90,520, the gap to $150,000 represents significant room for the predicted final rally—but also a proportionally devastating decline should the pattern play out as theorized.

The Divergence Problem

Supporting this bearish outlook are specific momentum indicators flashing warning signs. Bitcoin is exhibiting what Zeberg describes as a significant bearish divergence on the monthly timeframe—price continues making incremental gains while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fails to confirm these advances. This disconnect between price and momentum is a classic late-cycle warning signal.

Additionally, the monthly MACD indicator is approaching or has already triggered a bearish crossover on the long-term chart, further reinforcing the negative technical picture. These indicators, when combined with the expanding diagonal structure, paint a scenario that demands careful risk management from Bitcoin holders currently holding positions.