MSCI new policy approaching, $10-15 billion may be forced to exit

Index provider MSCI is brewing a major policy adjustment, planning to remove listed companies with more than 50% of their assets in cryptocurrencies from its indices. This technical change could trigger systemic risks and serve as a catalyst for significant adjustments in the cryptocurrency market.

Mechanism Risks Behind the Policy

This is not merely a rule adjustment but a forced reallocation of institutional funds. As a leading global index provider, MSCI’s trackers include thousands of passive funds and ETFs. Once a company is removed, these funds must adjust their holdings in the short term, regardless of their own views.

Analysis by the organization BitcoinForCorporations indicates that approximately 39 listed companies could be affected, with a total market value of $113 billion. The estimated capital outflow ranges between $10 billion and $15 billion—funds that will not exit gradually but are forced to sell into the market.

Strategy Becomes the Focus

The most directly impacted is the cryptocurrency investment firm Strategy, which is also the largest Bitcoin holder among listed companies. According to JPMorgan, if Strategy is removed from the index, it could face a capital pressure of $2.8 billion.

This means a two-fold impact: first, direct selling pressure on Strategy’s stock; second, an indirect effect on Bitcoin prices, as Strategy’s valuation is closely linked to BTC. When multiple coin-holding companies face similar situations simultaneously, a domino effect ensues.

Critics’ Doubts

Opposition comes from multiple directions. BitcoinForCorporations points out that the rules are too arbitrary: “A single asset-liability indicator cannot accurately determine a company’s operational attributes. Even if the company’s revenue, clients, and business remain unchanged, this rule will directly exclude them.”

Investment firm Strive even states that investors should be “allowed to decide” whether they need Bitcoin exposure. Strategy itself believes this reflects a structural bias against cryptocurrencies as an asset class.

The core issue is—MSCI views cryptocurrencies as risk deviations rather than legitimate strategic assets, and thus seeks to filter them out of the framework.

Why This Becomes a Systemic Risk

This dispute touches on a deeper issue: the friction in integrating cryptocurrencies with traditional financial frameworks. When rule conflicts occur, they generate selling pressure—not because of pessimistic market sentiment, but due to systemic design. This makes the risk far greater than ordinary adjustments, as it involves forced reallocation rather than natural market reactions.

MSCI will announce its final decision before January 15. Until then, uncertainty will continue to suppress market sentiment, and investors should closely monitor this policy development.