The Trump administration recently released its report card: in one year, it reduced the US trade deficit from $136 billion to $30 billion. The key tool was tariff policy. But this is not the end— the Supreme Court is scheduled to give a ruling on the legality of these tariffs on January 10.

This ruling is based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. It may seem insignificant, but it could actually change the market landscape. If the court rules the tariffs illegal, the federal government will have to refund over $133.5 billion in tariffs, likely causing a major market upheaval. Even if the tariffs are deemed legal, the existing trade patterns will continue, and capital flows will shift accordingly.

History offers us many clues. The last time Trump announced tariffs, BTC immediately dropped by 10%, and the speed was astonishing. This shows how closely policy moves are linked to the crypto market. This time, the Supreme Court’s decision is almost certain to become a key factor influencing short-term cryptocurrency trends.

The strange part is this: market reactions often go against your intuitive expectations. When good news appears, the market may perform a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" pattern, declining along the way; conversely, when bad news is settled, a rebound may occur. Why? Because the market has already priced in expectations. How much has been digested? No one can say for sure. Relying on a single event to predict short-term movements over a day or two is risky everywhere.

In the face of potential volatility from tariff rulings, investors should not bet on the direction but understand the underlying market pricing logic.