#密码资产动态追踪 Tonight at 21:30 Eastern Time, non-farm payrolls and unemployment data will be released simultaneously—this announcement's impact on the crypto market, honestly, is no less than any mainstream coin’s technical breakthrough.

Many people hear "non-farm" and only focus on the employment number, but what truly determines the market direction is actually a combination of three data points: new employment figures, unemployment rate trends, and wage growth changes. These three indicators together directly influence the Federal Reserve’s policy stance and indirectly affect the short-term movements of risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The logic is quite straightforward—

When the data is weak (unemployment rate exceeds 4.7%, and new jobs are far below expectations), the economy faces pressure, and the market will preemptively bet on rate cuts, often leading to Bitcoin’s rise; conversely, if employment data exceeds expectations and the unemployment rate remains low, it indicates strong economic resilience, and expectations for rate hikes will increase, causing on-chain assets to be easily hammered down.

But there’s a trap here that must be understood beforehand—the market will explode at the moment the data is released. Experienced traders have seen this scene: sharp volatility in a short period, with many retail traders being shaken out by the false breakouts of the first two waves. Many people get confused and caught off guard by these market tricks.

What is the smart approach? Stay calm. Take a deep breath. Ask yourself three questions:

Which indicator in this data set has exceeded expectations? Is the market’s initial reaction truly the final direction? Have the Fed’s rate hike or cut expectations changed because of this data?

Give yourself and the market time to react. During a 30-minute observation window, watch how the price performs at key support and resistance levels—this is much wiser than going all-in at the open.

Ultimately, tonight’s decisive factor isn’t about accurately guessing whether the data is good or bad, but understanding what the market fears most and what it expects most. Follow the trend, don’t get caught up in short-term fluctuations—that’s the secret to surviving the longest as a trader.