Currently, there is an interesting phenomenon in the United States—consumer confidence has fallen to recent lows, but the employment market is not as bad as it seems. This disconnect is profoundly affecting the performance of speculative assets like BTC.

Let's look at the unemployment data. Although high interest rates over the past three years have indeed pushed up the unemployment rate, in a historical context, this number remains relatively low. More importantly, since last summer, private sector employment has stabilized, and non-farm employment data has continued to grow into this year. This indicates that the employment market is not as fragile as the market fears.

The Federal Reserve's stance is crucial. They have observed these employment data, so they maintain a relatively hawkish outlook on policy for 2026. In other words, the days of stimulating the market through rate cuts may not come so soon.

What does this mean? If the labor market is no longer a major concern for the Fed, their focus will shift to reducing inflation. This is not good news for speculative assets—support for easing policies will weaken. This trend has long been reflected in various macro indicators.

Of course, the situation could reverse. If the labor market suddenly weakens while inflation continues to decline, the Fed might adopt a more moderate policy. But the reality is that the probability of a significantly weakening labor market is not high. Coupled with the hawkish turn initiated by global central banks last year, which is still ongoing, this exerts dual pressure on speculative markets including BTC.