Bitcoin hit $90,000 and then pulled out a long lower shadow, which is a common tactic used by the main players—creating a panic illusion to wash out retail investors. Today, the price slowly climbed back to around 91,500, seeming like a reversal? Don’t believe it. I checked on-chain data and K-line details and found that the real risk signals have just started to emerge.

**BTC Short-term Critical Point of Life and Death**

The 90,600 level is extremely critical; it is a defensive line in the short cycle (4-hour moving average 60 plus the previous concentrated chip area). Large on-chain holders haven't escaped; instead, they are clustering buy orders between 90,000 and 90,500, indicating they are bottom-fishing. But the current problem is— the market is stuck in an awkward position:

Below is support at 90,600, then down to 89,000; above is the pressure zone from 92,600 to 93,400, where the air force attacked twice in the past two days but hasn't fully retreated. To truly break upward, it depends on whether volume can cooperate.

Tonight, the US CPI data will be released, which could be a turning point. If the data shows inflation higher than expected, Bitcoin might pretend to break above 92,600, then get hammered back down; conversely, if the data is more moderate, it’s likely to surge with volume directly toward 93,500. The short-term strategy is not to chase highs; placing low buy orders around 90,600 is more reliable.

**Ethereum’s Rebound Looks Weak and Powerless**

Ethereum’s recent rebound is weak and limp, unable to hold even the 3,100 level. On-chain staking data reveals clues: only 80,000 ETH are queued for withdrawal, but over 900,000 ETH are locked in staking. Large holders are adding positions, while retail investors are cutting losses—this reflects the current market sentiment.

The support zone at 3,080 to 3,100 is a key area to watch for sentiment. Once a reversal is truly underway, the 3,160 level must be broken; otherwise, the rebound is just a rebound.