China's tariff policy is changing: What will happen with the new US tariffs introduced in June 2027

Background and Overview

The tariff strategy against Chinese-made semiconductors under the Trump administration has been concretized. Starting June 23, 2027, the United States plans to impose new tariffs on semiconductor imports from China. This measure represents the latest development in the US-China friction over supply chain dominance in the technology industry. While the exact tariff rates have not yet been disclosed, it is certain to impact a wide range of industries including smartphones, computers, and automotive systems.

Multilateral Impact of Chinese Tariffs on Global Industries

Direct Blow to the Semiconductor Market

The primary goal of this tariff implementation is to restrict the expansion of China’s chip industry. Semiconductors are the foundation of all technological products, and the strengthening of Chinese tariffs will force a reorganization of global supply chains. Especially given that China accounts for about 60% of the world’s semiconductor consumption, supply-side constraints could lead to serious economic ripple effects.

Legal Litigation and Uncertainty Over Tariff Refunds

Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, mentioned ongoing court battles. The Trump administration believes it can secure support from the U.S. Supreme Court regarding the legality of this tariff, but if an unfavorable ruling is issued, it could be forced to refund up to @E5@ billion in tariffs.

In anticipation of this legal uncertainty, several U.S. companies have already taken countermeasures. For example, a corporate group including Costco is selling its refund claims to external investors to mitigate risks. Depending on the outcome of the litigation, both companies and the government could face significant financial impacts.

Tariff Revenue and Domestic Policy Utilization Plans

Signal of Revenue Decline

In October, tariff revenue amounted to $31.35 billion, but in November, it decreased to $30.76 billion. This decline suggests the first decrease since the tariffs were introduced, indicating that market adaptation and circumvention behaviors may be underway.

Citizen Benefit Plans

The administration is considering using tariff revenues to implement a $2,000 cash-back program for U.S. citizens. According to Hassett, this program is scheduled for formal congressional proposal in 2026 and has gained more support than initially envisioned. Additionally, a plan to distribute $1,776 as a “Warrior Dividend” to U.S. military personnel has also emerged.

Parallel Trade Reorganization through International Negotiations

Review of the Canada Agreement

The U.S. and Canada are scheduled to begin formal negotiations in mid-January to review their free trade agreement. However, Canadian authorities have stated that key issues are unlikely to be addressed at this stage. Instead, substantial negotiations are expected during the review of the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) next year.

Multi-layered Strategic Adjustments

Alongside the introduction of Chinese tariffs, the Trump administration continues discussions with China. Through summit agreements, decisions regarding trade permissions in specific technological fields are being advanced, and efforts to maintain a balance between the two countries are ongoing.

Summary

The strengthening of Chinese tariffs is not merely a trade policy but a symbol of the reorganization of the global economic order. As full implementation approaches in June 2027, rapid adaptation at the corporate, government, and consumer levels is expected. It is essential to monitor court rulings, the progress of international negotiations, and market responses.