#市场情绪与链上结构 The liquidity contraction during Christmas week has become quite evident. Looking at last night's data: the open interest of BTC perpetual contracts evaporated by $3 billion overnight, and ETH also dropped by $2 billion, indicating that the market is actively deleveraging rather than adding positions—cautious sentiment has taken the lead.

This Friday is a key milestone. 300,000 BTC options (worth $23.7 billion) and 446,000 IBIT options are expiring, with over 50% of Deribit’s open interest concentrated on Christmas Day, with a pain point around $95,000. Interestingly, the open interest of $85,000 put options is decreasing, while $100,000 call options remain stable, suggesting the market still holds limited optimism about holiday行情.

However, the risk reversal indicator shows that market sentiment has eased compared to 30 days ago, but overall remains bearish. Coupled with year-end tax-loss harvesting in a low-liquidity environment, volatility could be further amplified, making short-term sideways consolidation more likely. Historical data indicates that holiday行情 usually only mean-reverts after liquidity returns in January. In the absence of clear breakout directions, it is more meaningful to continue observing changes in market funding before and after options expiration.