XRP ahead of 2026: Technical warning signs indicate significant volatility

Critical Price Levels Define the Upcoming Scenario

The XRP price is currently moving within a critical range between $1.90 and $1.81, signaling indecision in the markets. After breaking below the $1.90 mark on December 22, the asset has so far lacked the strength to reclaim this resistance. Current data shows a price of $2.11 with a 24-hour increase of +0.67%, but the longer-term weekly chart presents a more nuanced picture: XRP is about 16% below last month’s levels and appears as one of the weaker large-cap assets in the current cycle.

The pattern emerging in the chart is a descending triangle—a formation that traditionally leads to continuation moves. The price remains stubbornly at the lower end of this range, rather than testing the upper trendline. If the $1.81 level gives way, XRP could break out of this structure—with potential targets at $1.68 and, in the worst case, at $1.52 if selling pressure accelerates.

Three Converging Market Signals Warn of Stronger Volatility

What’s remarkable about the current situation is not a single warning sign, but the interplay of three technical and on-chain indicators all pointing in the same direction.

Retail Sales During Price Recoveries: The Money Flow Index (MFI) shows contradictory behavior to the price movement between December 18 and 27. While XRP’s price trended higher, the MFI—which measures inflow and outflow of money—was trending downward. This indicates that retail investors are reducing their positions during rallies rather than accumulating. Retail participation, which typically drives volatility, is therefore significantly weaker.

Long-term Confidence Erodes: Even more concerning is the development among long-term holders. According to HODL-Waves data, wallets holding XRP for 2 to 3 years have reduced their share of the total supply from 14.26% (November 26) to only 5.66% (December 26). These committed long-term investors usually provide stable market support. Their massive withdrawal, coinciding with retail weakness, creates a troubling scenario: both short-term and long-term market participants are inclined to reduce their XRP holdings.

Capital Flow Diminishes: The third aspect is the Chaikin Money Flow Index (CMF), which reflects buying and selling pressure based on volume and price dynamics. The CMF remains stubbornly in negative territory for XRP and follows a descending support trendline. In other words: institutional capital is flowing out of the asset, while the market is dominated by selling pressure. Even with flat price movement, demand is overwhelmed by increasing willingness to sell.

The Bearish Scenario Dominates the Market

With retail rejection, institutional liquidation, and declining capital flow, XRP currently lacks a sustainable support structure. The 7-day performance of +10.80% may suggest a short-term recovery, but the volatility in this immediate lead-up to the new year indicates uncertainty.

If XRP reclaims the $1.90 level and then breaks through the $1.99 zone, this would represent the first serious sign of strength—combined with a breakout above the upper triangle line. However, the bullish scenario is much less pronounced than the bearish one.

As long as these three signals do not reverse—retail capitalization remains weak, long-term holders continue to sell, and the CMF does not rise—XRP will struggle to stabilize its trading range. The coming days will be decisive.