#比特币ETF产品 When I saw this data, the scene that flashed through my mind was the end of 2021. That year, we watched as institutional buying momentum shifted from frenzy to caution, then from caution to observation, and finally to collective exit. At that time, there were no spot ETFs, and no concept of a "Bitcoin Treasury," but the essential story was the same—the tide of demand recedes, and prices must return to their true levels.

Now, looking back at this cycle. In 2023, when the spot ETF was approved, we all thought it was a signal that institutions were officially entering the market. Then came the presidential election, the treasury company boom, with incremental demand pouring in wave after wave. But the data was in front of us: net selling, declining holdings, growth below trend. What does this mean? It means that those incremental buyers are now orderly exiting.

The key is the 365-day moving average line. This is not just a random technical indicator I mention; it’s a historical dividing line. Every time the price touches this line, it marks the boundary between two different eras—one of ample expectations, and one of expectations being digested. The current situation closely resembles the "demand deterioration" atmosphere of early 2022 and late 2021.

From a long-term perspective, this is not a bad thing. A bear market is an inevitable part of the cycle—a process of price correction, expectation adjustment, and energy accumulation for the next growth phase. But for those still dreaming of continuous demand, this signal is clear enough. History always repeats itself; only the participants change.