Technical logic behind SOL's surge to $260: from pattern breakout to fundamental validation

Why Technical Patterns Point to a Higher Target

Solana’s chart phenomenology reveals a complete bullish signal chain. On the daily chart, a precise bullish flag pattern is brewing, with a key breakout level locked at $190. This resistance is not just a price point but a watershed confirming the overall bullish thesis—once effectively broken, subsequent momentum will accelerate significantly.

More notably, the weekly dimension shows a V-shaped reversal pattern. This decisive rebound from the bottom is among the strongest upward signals in technical analysis, with the $260 level serving as the neckline of this V. Based on the symmetry of the reversal amplitude, this price target is not a subjective guess but a geometric inevitability.

Momentum indicators provide a third layer of confirmation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the rising zone but has not entered overbought extremes, making this state the healthiest—showing ample upward power while leaving room for further expansion. This moderate yet powerful condition is a typical feature of sustainable upward trends.

How Fundamentals Support Price Appreciation

The credibility of technical patterns ultimately depends on fundamentals. The expansion of the Solana ecosystem in DeFi is visible growth—leading protocols like Serum, Raydium, and others are continuously increasing their locked-in assets, directly translating into sustained demand for SOL tokens.

On-chain activity metrics are equally impressive: rising transaction fee revenues are not just hype but concrete evidence of network usage. When fees increase, it indicates real users engaging in real transactions. Solana’s capacity of 65,000 transactions per second already surpasses most competitors, and the roadmap’s goal of breaking 100,000 TPS is gradually approaching.

From an institutional perspective, the involvement of traditional financial giants like Visa and Western Union is no coincidence. Their choice of Solana as the infrastructure for stablecoin settlement and issuance indicates that this blockchain has achieved enterprise-level reliability. Ongoing network activity in gaming, NFT markets (such as Magic Eden), and Web3 applications validates that SOL’s value is driven not only by speculation but also by ecosystem prosperity.

How Expert Predictions Align with Technical Structure

Market analysts’ target settings show cross-framework consistency. $205 as the first breakout target, $225 as an intermediate checkpoint, and $268 as a key resistance—this progressive target system nearly perfectly overlaps with the $260 neckline of the V-shaped reversal theory. This coincidence across multiple analytical angles exemplifies the effectiveness of technical analysis.

Furthermore, the possibility of approaching the historical high of $295 is also incorporated into the forecast framework. Historical price levels often have psychological magnetism, and institutional funds tend to react when approaching such levels. This former peak has now become a potential target zone for a new upward wave.

How Real-Time Data Changes the Assessment

Currently, SOL is at $138.27, a pullback from the 24-hour high of $141.18, but the 7-day gain of +7.29% shows upward momentum remains intact. The total supply is about 618 million tokens, with circulating supply around 564 million, and market cap has reached $78.02B. These data form the basis for evaluating “how much growth is needed to reach $260”—the target implies a market cap more than doubling, which for a blockchain with a $780 billion base is achievable through organic ecosystem expansion rather than pure speculation.

Compared to the historical high (ATH) of $293.31, the $260 target is actually a conservative mid-term goal rather than an ambitious dream figure.

Long-Term Scenario Simulation

If the current growth trajectory continues, the prediction of SOL surpassing €10,000 by 2030 may seem aggressive but is not entirely unimaginable, considering the exponential application potential of blockchain technology. This would require ongoing network upgrades, accelerated enterprise adoption, and favorable macroeconomic conditions.

By 2035, approaching a peak valuation of €522.31 reflects a hypothetical scenario: Solana fully landing in DeFi, asset tokenization, and Web3 applications, evolving from a mid-sized ecosystem into a mainstream infrastructure.

How Traders Should Monitor

The key breakout level at $190 is the first confirmation point. It determines the direction and magnitude of subsequent momentum. After breaking through, one can expect rapid testing of levels like $205, $225, and others. Confirmations at each intermediate target will increase the probability of reaching higher future targets.

From technical, fundamental, and expert consensus perspectives, the story of SOL heading toward $260 is unfolding chapter by chapter. When signals from these dimensions align in one direction, price follow-through is often just a matter of time.