Can Bitcoin still rise in the short term? The technical analysis provides the answer

The Current Reality of BTC

Looking at the latest market data, Bitcoin is currently trading at 90.41K, down over 28% from its all-time high of 126.08K. Don’t listen to those black-and-white opinions—Bitcoin is actually in a very delicate state right now—institutions continue to accumulate while retail investors face distribution pressures, leading to intense competition.

In the past 24 hours, trading volume reached 921.95M, with a circulating market cap of up to 1.8 trillion, indicating decent liquidity. But you can clearly feel the market hesitating. The most discussed question among traders lately is whether it will continue to fall or rebound.

Secrets Revealed by Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, signals are mixed. The MACD histogram shows bullish momentum strengthening (value 599.1372), which usually suggests an increasing likelihood of an upward acceleration. But that’s not enough—you need to consider the price position as well.

The key levels now look like this:

• Short-term resistance: The 95,000 USD level is critical. If broken, it could head straight to 107,500 USD.
• 20-day moving average: 93,428 USD. This is a trend confirmation line; holding this level suggests a medium-term bullish outlook.
• Strong support zone: 80,600 USD and the lower Bollinger Band at 80,687 USD overlap, making it a good area for buying the dip.
• Breakout zone: The consolidation range of 93,900-97,100 USD is crucial. A breakout or breakdown here will give clear signals.

Interestingly, the RSI is neither extremely oversold nor overbought, indicating room for further downside. But if it can break above 95,000 USD, the bearish flag pattern observed over the past few weeks might be invalidated, opening significant upside potential.

Will We See a Rebound in the Next 24 Hours?

The next day’s movement will heavily depend on macro events. The market is highly sensitive to liquidity and policy signals, and ETF inflows and outflows have a big impact on short-term trends.

Traders should focus on the 93,900-97,100 USD range. If the daily close is above 97,100 USD, it’s a technical victory that could trigger short covering and momentum buying. Conversely, if it fails to hold, a drop to around 80,400 USD is also possible.

Given the current volatility pattern, don’t expect dramatic swings in the next 24 hours. External factors will likely play a bigger role than technical signals in the short term.

Where Could Prices Reach Within a Week?

From a technical standpoint, BTC could recover to around 101,000 USD, representing about a 10.5% increase from current levels. This target aligns with many analysts’ expectations, with a weekly goal around 100,900 USD.

What’s the key catalyst for this rebound? Breaking through the 95,000 USD resistance is essential. If BTC can regain this level with increased volume, it could head toward 107,500 USD or even challenge 108,000 USD.

But this depends on multiple technical indicators confirming—MACD crossing above zero and RSI surpassing 50.

Pessimistic reverse thinking: If BTC cannot reclaim the 93,428 USD (20-day MA) within five trading days, the bullish outlook will be undermined, and the market may enter a longer consolidation phase. In that case, BTC might fluctuate between 85,000 and 95,000 USD, waiting for clearer signals.

The Long-Term Outlook for 30 Days

By mid-December 2025 (and looking one month ahead), the ideal scenario is for BTC to reach 108,000 USD, implying a 15-20% increase from current levels. If it can surpass 107,500 USD, then the strong resistance at 122,550 USD becomes reachable—an even more aggressive bullish forecast.

However, a warning: Historical seasonal data shows December isn’t always a good month. Historically, less than half of Decembers close higher, with median returns being negative. Especially when November is negative (as it is now), December tends to also decline. This isn’t an absolute rule but a trend worth considering.

A more realistic 30-day outlook: BTC may fluctuate within a broad range of 70,000-110,000 USD. The key factors are threefold:

1. ETF inflows — This is the “acid test.” If spot ETF inflows continue for several days at 200-300 million USD, it indicates institutional reallocation back into BTC, enabling a genuine rebound.
2. Long-term holder behavior — On-chain data shows whales continue to transfer coins to exchanges, and long-term holders are still distributing, maintaining high supply pressure.
3. Volume confirmation — Breakouts without volume support are false signals.

Several Real Market Signals

On-chain data tells a story: Whales and long-term holders’ distribution behavior suggests BTC might test deeper support levels before any rebound attempt. This isn’t panic but a reflection of supply pressure.

Macro factors cannot be ignored: Policy announcements, interest rate changes, and global economic data can cause excessive short-term volatility. Market sentiment is easily influenced by these factors.

Correlation with stocks: If BTC’s correlation with equities increases, the risk of simultaneous declines rises. Conversely, if risk appetite improves, BTC could benefit from renewed institutional participation.

Industry Perspectives

Analysts’ opinions vary, which is normal:

Some optimists believe the key indicators are risk sentiment recovery, liquidity improvement, and market depth enhancement. When ETF inflows accelerate, institutional rotation begins, and the next rally is near.

Cautious voices warn not to expect big moves in December. A relatively calm month with slow upward trends might be more realistic. They emphasize the shift in supply behavior—when long-term holders switch from distributing to accumulating, pressure eases.

Some institutional players remain optimistic, targeting a more aggressive goal of 131,227 USD, expecting about 40% growth. But this must be balanced with seasonal data and current on-chain distribution patterns.

How to Operate in This Market?

The key points are:

• Short-term (24 hours): Focus on the 93,900-97,100 USD breakout zone—this is the test of direction.
• Medium-term (one week): Watch whether 95,000 USD can hold and whether volume can push through.
• Long-term (one month): ETF flows, on-chain accumulation signals, and volume are the decisive factors.

Bitcoin’s short-term outlook always depends on these three dimensions: technical analysis, on-chain data, and market sentiment. Currently, they are “entangled” and haven’t provided a clear direction. When one signal turns, it could mark the start of the next trend.

By the way, some market observers note that early industry builders’ perspectives (like seasoned figures such as Billy Markus) often provide unique insights from different angles. The market now needs such diverse voices to help clarify the picture.

In summary, these 30 days are critical for BTC, but don’t rush. When technicals and on-chain data align, opportunities will emerge.