Focus on tonight's Non-Farm Payrolls: After the shutdown turmoil, data may trigger a wave, with a breakout trend imminent

The turmoil surrounding the US government shutdown at the end of 2025 has introduced uncertainty into the employment market. On one hand, the shutdown has caused abnormal adjustments in non-farm payroll data releases; on the other hand, its actual impact is gradually becoming evident in the economy—employment and unemployment rates face a dual test, although recent signs seem to point toward recovery.

Based on this week's released ADP small non-farm data, employment shows a significant rebound, rising from a previous negative value of -3.2 to a reported 4.1. As government departments resume operations, the US stock market performs strongly, seemingly indicating that the economy is returning to a steady growth track.

However, the real key lies in tonight's major non-farm payroll data:

· Previous: 64,000
· Forecast: 60,000
· Release: To be determined

Market impact speculation:

· If the release is around 60,000, market fluctuations are expected to be limited, with trends primarily driven by technical factors, slightly bullish overall.
· If the data is slightly above or below 60,000, the minor positive or negative impact will be relatively limited, unlikely to trigger a trend.
· If the release exceeds 100,000, it is considered significantly negative.
· If the release is below 30,000, it is considered significantly positive.

For this non-farm payroll report, a bullish outlook is more favored.

Tonight's data not only reflects the employment situation but also serves as a litmus test for the economic recovery after the shutdown. Regardless of the outcome, the market is prepared to face the potential breakout storm.